Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsIsrael will conduct significant military strikes against Syria in a very short period from September 2022.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“I expect us to see some very interesting pyrotechnics between the Israelis and the syrians in a very short period of time”
Israel will conduct significant military strikes against Syria in a very short period from September 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-09-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-09-17
Within roughly three months of 2022-09-15, Israel carries out significant military strikes against targets in Syria.
Criterion ('within ~3 months of 2022-09-15, Israel carries out significant military strikes against targets in Syria') was clearly met. The first qualifying strike came Sept 17, 2022 (two days after the prediction); multiple additional significant strikes followed through Dec 2022 (Oct 21 Dimas airport, Nov 19 Hama/Homs/Latakia, Dec 20 near Damascus airport). Resolved on first qualifying event (2022-09-17). Note: such strikes were Israel's ongoing routine campaign against Iranian assets in Syria, not a new departure — relevant to base-rate/triviality considerations at the quantify stage, but the written criterion is met.
Sources
The Collapse of Empires
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Al Jazeera / Times of Israel (Sept 17, 2022 — two days after the prediction): Israel carried out an air attack on Syria's Damascus International Airport and positions south of the capital, killing ~5 soldiers (figures varied 2-5 across sources) and causing material damage. A significant Israeli strike on Syria within the window.
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights 2022 annual tally: Israel attacked Syria on 32 occasions in 2022, destroying ~91 targets. Within the Sept 15 – Dec 15, 2022 window specifically: Sept (2 attacks, incl. Sept 17 Damascus airport), Oct (3 attacks, incl. Oct 21 strike on Dimas airport destroying Iranian drone-assembly equipment/radar), Nov (3 attacks, incl. Nov 19 strikes in Hama/Homs/Latakia). Multiple significant strikes occurred.
Wikipedia 'September 2022 Damascus airstrikes': documents the Sept 17, 2022 Israeli airstrike on the Damascus airport area, corroborating a significant strike days after the prediction was made.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Israel will conduct significant military strikes against Sy…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources