Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsIf Ukraine recaptures Kherson, it will control/cut the North Crimean Canal, depriving Crimea of its primary water supply.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“if the ukrainians succeed in retaking their city of kirsten they will be able to control that slu skate that controls the canal and then all of a sudden all of crimea overnight is high and dry and any progress that the crimean farmers have made will simply dry up and blow away and that could be the first stage for a major revolt reversal in this war”
If Ukraine recaptures Kherson, it will control/cut the North Crimean Canal, depriving Crimea of its primary water supply.
- Made on
- 2022-09-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-06
Conditional on Ukrainian recapture of Kherson: Ukraine cuts/controls the North Crimean Canal, removing Crimea's main water supply.
CONSEQUENT NOT MET AS SPECIFIED (antecedent only partially satisfied). The prediction is conditional on Ukraine 'recapturing Kherson' and then controlling/cutting the canal to remove Crimea's water. Ukraine recaptured Kherson CITY and the Dnipro RIGHT (west) bank in Nov 2022, but the canal's intake/headgates at Tavriisk are on the LEFT (east) bank, which Russia retained throughout — so Ukraine never controlled or cut the canal and did not deprive Crimea of water by that mechanism. Crimea's canal water was instead lost in June 2023 when the Russian-controlled Kakhovka Dam was destroyed, draining the reservoir that feeds the canal (a different cause than the predicted Ukrainian cutoff). Depending on how strictly the quantify stage reads 'recaptures Kherson' (city only vs. the canal-controlling left bank), this leans toward the predicted causal mechanism NOT occurring. resolved_on set to the date Crimea's canal water supply actually ended (Kakhovka dam destruction). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Where in the World: Vanderburgh Lake and Water
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wikipedia 'North Crimean Canal': the canal's head intake/main sluice is at Tavriisk, on the LEFT (east) side of Nova Kakhovka, drawing from the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dnipro. Russia seized these head intake structures on 24 Feb 2022 and destroyed the 2014 Ukrainian blockage, restoring water to Crimea. The canal went dry only after the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed on 6 June 2023 (which drained the reservoir feeding it) — not because Ukraine cut it.
Geography confirmation: Tavriisk, where the canal draws water, is on the LEFT/eastern bank of the Dnipro near Nova Kakhovka — territory that remained under Russian control after the Nov 2022 Kherson liberation, which only returned the RIGHT (west) bank and Kherson city to Ukraine. Ukraine therefore never gained control of the canal headgates.
IWPR 'Crimean Canal Key to its Liberation' and Kyiv Post coverage: controlling the North Crimean Canal/Kakhovka was described as a Ukrainian strategic goal, but it depended on retaking the LEFT-bank intake area, which Ukraine did not achieve; after the June 2023 Kakhovka dam blast the canal dried up by loss of its reservoir source rather than by a Ukrainian cut at Kherson.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Ukraine recaptures Kherson, it will control/cut the Nort…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources