Full record
MissmarketsGlobal wheat prices will more than double as a result of the Ukraine disruption.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“What we're dealing with is an order of magnitude more complicated and deeper rooted, and to think that we're only going to have a doubling of prices is ridiculously optimistic.”
Global wheat prices will more than double as a result of the Ukraine disruption.
- Made on
- 2022-08-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-05
Global wheat prices more than double (>100% increase) from the pre-disruption level at any point within the window.
Criterion (>100% increase from the pre-disruption level at any point in the window) NOT met. The maximum move attributable to the Ukraine disruption was ~+67% (Feb 2022 ~$7.73 to the 7 Mar 2022 all-time high of $12.94), and that peak actually predates the prediction window (window opens 2022-08-05); within-window prices were lower and trended back toward/below pre-war levels by 2023–2024. No data point shows wheat ever doubling. Multiple sources note a small (~5%) lasting structural premium versus pre-war trend, but that is nowhere near 100%. resolved_on = 2025-08-05 (window close), since the claim required a doubling 'at any point within the window' and none occurred.
Sources
Putting Ukraine's Grain Export Deal Into Context
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
CBOT wheat rose from ~$7.73/bushel at the start of February 2022 (pre-invasion / pre-disruption level) to an intraday/closing high of $12.94 on 7 March 2022 — an increase of ~67%, well short of a 100%+ doubling. This March 2022 spike was the all-time high; wheat never reached ~$15.46/bushel (2x the pre-disruption level).
After the May 2022 peak, US and global wheat prices cooled steadily: world FOB prices reverted to roughly pre-war levels ($200–$300/MT, in line with 2018–2020), and the projected US 2024/25 marketing-year average price was ~$6.50/bushel — below the ~$7.73 pre-disruption level. Prices stayed far under the doubling threshold for the entire 2022-08-05 to 2025-08-05 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Global wheat prices will more than double as a result of th…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources