Full record
HitgeopoliticsNancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan within the next few days (~by 2022-08-04).
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“nancy pelosi the speaker of the house democratic leadership uh is probably going to be going to taiwan very soon maybe today maybe tomorrow”
Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan within the next few days (~by 2022-08-04).
- Made on
- 2022-08-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-08-02
Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan within days of 2022-08-02.
Claim made 2022-08-02 ('within the next few days, ~by 2022-08-04'). Pelosi landed in Taipei on the evening of 2022-08-02 and stayed through 2022-08-03 — well within the stated window. Fully resolved as occurred; no conflicting evidence.
Sources
Nancy Pelosi Goes to Taiwan
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Wikipedia '2022 visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan': Pelosi visited Taiwan August 2-3, 2022 — the first sitting US House Speaker to visit since Newt Gingrich in 1997. Her aircraft arrived in Taipei without incident.
Washington Post (2022-08-02): 'Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan despite warning from China' — contemporaneous primary reporting of the arrival on Aug 2, 2022.
NBC News: Pelosi departed Taiwan after a two-day visit; the US Air Force plane landed and departed Taipei Songshan Airport safely.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan within the next few days…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources