Prediction record
MissenergyEurope, especially Germany, will see a broad-scale failure of green/renewable energy by the end of 2023.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“we're going to see a broad-scale failure in europe particularly in germany of all things green probably this year and certainly next year”
Europe, especially Germany, will see a broad-scale failure of green/renewable energy by the end of 2023.
- Made on
- 2022-08-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -3.53
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-01-31
Europe (notably Germany) experiences a broad failure of its renewable-energy strategy by end-2023 (e.g. forced reversion to fossil/other generation, inability to meet demand from green sources) — qualitative but assessable as a broad reversal.
Claim: Europe (esp. Germany) sees a 'broad-scale failure of green/renewable energy by end-2023' (forced reversion to fossils, inability to meet demand from green sources). By the 2023-12-31 deadline the opposite is documented: Germany's renewable share rose to a record (~52% of consumption / ~57-60% of net generation), coal-fired generation FELL by ~one third to multi-decade lows, wholesale prices fell sharply, and there was no demand-met failure or systemic blackout. Germany did briefly extend some coal/lignite plants and delayed its last nuclear closure to April 2023 during the acute 2022 crisis, but these were temporary bridging measures that were reversed, not a 'broad-scale failure' of the green strategy — so the qualitative-but-assessable criterion resolves against the claim having materialized. The narrative is robust and corroborated across official German government (BMWE), official research (Fraunhofer ISE) and specialist (Clean Energy Wire) sources; no credible source describes a broad 2023 collapse of German/European renewables. Caveat for the scoring stage: a critical EJF briefing ('Coal-Powered Crisis', June 2023) highlights the real (if temporary) 2022-23 coal/lignite uptick and its harms — relevant color, but it documents a transient rebound that was subsequently reversed, not the predicted end-2023 broad failure.
Sources
Electricity in Transition
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Clean Energy Wire: Germany's coal-fired power production fell by almost one third (48 TWh) in 2023, cutting coal's share to 26% of net generation; lignite power output fell to the lowest level since 1963 and hard-coal power to the lowest since 1955. The 2022 energy-crisis coal rebound was reversed — the OPPOSITE of a broad green-energy failure / forced reversion to fossil fuels.
Fraunhofer ISE (official German research institute): in H1 2023 renewables reached a record 57.7% share of German net public electricity generation — demonstrating green sources were meeting, not failing to meet, demand.
German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWE) Energiewende newsletter: looking back at 2023, renewables crossed the 50% mark of electricity consumption for the first time — an official government statement of success, not failure.
Clean Energy Wire ('Transition state of play – Germany is emerging from the energy crisis'): Germany came through the 2022-23 crisis without the predicted collapse; 2023 wholesale day-ahead power averaged ~92 EUR/MWh vs ~240 EUR/MWh in 2022, and power-sector CO2 emissions hit a ~70-year low. No broad failure of the renewable strategy.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-3.53- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -3.53
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Europe, especially Germany, will see a broad-scale failure…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources