US inflation readings for August and September 2022 will be as bad as or worse than recent readings.

Criterion

Resolution status

resolved

Resolved on

2022-10-13

US headline CPI inflation for August and September 2022 prints at or above the immediately preceding reading (~9.1% June print) — falsified if it declines.

Criterion is squarely resolvable against official BLS data. Headline YoY CPI trajectory: June 2022 = 9.1% (peak), July = 8.5%, August = 8.3%, September = 8.2%. Both the August (8.3%) and September (8.2%) prints came in BELOW the ~9.1% June reading and below each immediately preceding month — i.e. inflation DECLINED in both months, not 'as bad as or worse.' The written criterion explicitly says the claim is FALSIFIED if readings decline; they did. Note on nuance for the later scoring stage (not assigning an outcome here): month-over-month, August headline CPI rose +0.1% (gasoline fell but shelter/food rose) and core CPI YoY hit a fresh 40-yr high of 6.6% in September — so by a stricter 'inflation pressure was still severe' reading some observers felt inflation 'stayed bad.' But the record's stated metric is headline YoY vs. the immediately preceding reading, and on that metric it clearly declined both months. No conflicting evidence on the headline figures themselves; all sources (BLS, Brookings, Trading Economics) agree the headline rate fell. BLS PDFs returned HTTP 403 to automated fetch but figures are quoted verbatim from BLS release text in search results and corroborated across the BLS 'Economics Daily' pages and multiple secondary outlets.

Sources

• Inflation? We Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

  YouTube · 2022-07-14

  Source