Prediction record
HiteconomyThe US Federal Reserve will deliver another sharp rate increase very soon and at least one or two more before the end of 2022.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“so the fed is likely to do another sharp rate increase very soon and at least one or two more before the end of the year”
The US Federal Reserve will deliver another sharp rate increase very soon and at least one or two more before the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-07-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-14
The Fed raises rates again very soon after 2022-07-14 and delivers at least one or two further hikes before 2022-12-31.
Criterion fully satisfied in the direction of the claim. After 2022-07-14 the Fed delivered an immediate sharp hike (+75bp on Jul 27) and then three more before 2022-12-31 (Sep +75bp, Nov +75bp, Dec +50bp), totaling four additional hikes — comfortably meeting 'another sharp increase very soon and at least one or two more before the end of 2022.' Resolved in favor of the claim. (Note: a generic Wikipedia summary mis-stated the Nov/Dec sizes as +25bp each; the authoritative Fed openmarket.htm table giving Nov +75bp and Dec +50bp is used.)
Sources
Inflation? We Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Official Federal Reserve Open Market Operations table — 2022 FOMC actions after the 2022-07-14 prediction: +75bp on Jul 27 (to 2.25-2.50%), +75bp on Sep 21 (to 3.00-3.25%), +75bp on Nov 2 (to 3.75-4.00%), +50bp on Dec 14 (to 4.25-4.50%). Four further hikes before year-end, far exceeding 'at least one or two more.'
CNBC: the Fed raised rates 0.75 percentage point on July 27, 2022 (the 'another sharp rate increase very soon' the claim anticipated, ~13 days after the prediction), the second straight 75bp hike.
Federal Reserve FOMC calendar confirms the 2022 meeting dates (Jul 26-27, Sep 20-21, Nov 1-2, Dec 13-14) at which these hikes were delivered.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US Federal Reserve will deliver another sharp rate incr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources