Full record
HitpoliticsChina will face repeated cycles of COVID lockdowns, with Shanghai and other cities returning to lockdown multiple times.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitpolitics“we had a scare last week that looked like shanghai was about to go back into full lockdown already you know less than a month after opening up and i have no doubt that we're going to be facing this sort of problem over and over and over and over again”
China will face repeated cycles of COVID lockdowns, with Shanghai and other cities returning to lockdown multiple times.
- Made on
- 2022-06-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-05
Major Chinese cities (including Shanghai) re-enter COVID lockdowns on multiple distinct occasions within ~12 months of June 2022.
Criterion ('Major Chinese cities including Shanghai re-enter COVID lockdowns on multiple distinct occasions within ~12 months of June 2022') is well supported by reporting: Shanghai re-locked districts/citywide multiple times in June-July 2022, and dozens of other major cities (Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc.) entered lockdowns repeatedly Aug-Oct 2022 until zero-COVID was abandoned in Dec 2022. resolved_on set to 2022-10-05 (a clearly-documented later distinct major-city lockdown), by which point the 'multiple distinct occasions' criterion was already met. Outcome value (o) deliberately not assigned; left for the quantify stage.
Sources
Beijing Doubles Down on Zero COVID...and Lockdowns
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Shanghai exited its ~2-month citywide lockdown at midnight June 1, 2022, then re-entered lockdowns within days: on June 3, 2022 four neighborhoods in Jing'an and Pudong districts were put back into 'closed' lockdown ('mid-risk') after new cases. In July 2022 Shanghai again locked down almost the entire city over a weekend for mass testing as cases spread to 14 of the city's 16 districts. This establishes Shanghai re-entering lockdown on multiple distinct occasions after the June reopening.
Other major Chinese cities re-entered lockdowns repeatedly through autumn 2022: Chengdu locked down its ~21.2M residents starting Sept 1, 2022 (largest city locked down since Shanghai) and extended it; Shenzhen, Guangzhou (Haizhu district) and Dalian tightened restrictions. CNN reported that since Aug 20, 2022 at least 74 cities with a combined ~313M population had imposed full or partial lockdowns; on Oct 5, 2022 Xishuangbanna (Yunnan) went into full lockdown. Multiple distinct major-city lockdown episodes occurred within ~12 months of June 2022, satisfying the written criterion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.99- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China will face repeated cycles of COVID lockdowns, with Sh…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources