Full record
HitgeopoliticsThe United States will continue publicly disclosing Russian military plans before Russia can act on them.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“now we're going to be seeing a lot more of this moving forward”
The United States will continue publicly disclosing Russian military plans before Russia can act on them.
- Made on
- 2022-05-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-05-10
Within ~12 months, the US continues to publicly reveal/forewarn Russian military operations or plans ahead of their execution on at least a recurring basis.
Criterion (within ~12 months the U.S. continues to publicly reveal/forewarn Russian military plans on a recurring basis) is clearly met. Multiple sources document this as a sustained, deliberate 'playbook' that continued through April 2023 (just before the 2023-05-10 deadline) and was explicitly expected to persist. Resolved_on set to the deadline 2023-05-10. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
The Ukraine War, Assassinations, and Artillery
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings (Apr 2023): the U.S. government's 'decision to declassify intelligence on Russian decision-making' before and during the invasion is described as an ongoing, repeated practice — confirming recurring public disclosure of Russian plans through the prediction window.
DefenseScoop (28 Apr 2023): U.S. officials state 'authorized strategic intelligence disclosures are likely here to stay' — i.e., as of the end of the ~12-month window (deadline 2023-05-10), the U.S. was still routinely declassifying/disclosing intelligence about Russian plans, and intended to continue.
Seattle Times / AP: 'How the U.S. adopted a new intelligence playbook to expose Russia's war plans' — documents the sustained, recurring use of declassified intelligence to forewarn and expose Russian military operations as a deliberate ongoing strategy.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The United States will continue publicly disclosing Russian…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources