The US will be able to borrow at lower interest cost, for longer than markets have priced in, for decades to come — so long as its economy stays consumer-driven with healthy demography.

Criterion

Resolution status

resolved

Resolved on

2025-05-26

Conditional on the US economy staying consumer-driven with healthy demography; resolves true if US long-run borrowing costs remain below what markets priced in May 2022, sustained over the window.

The criterion (windowed to 2025-05-26) asks whether US long-run borrowing costs stayed BELOW what markets priced in May 2022, sustained over the window, conditional on a consumer-driven economy with healthy demography (condition broadly held). On the observable record the OPPOSITE occurred for this window: the 10y yield rose from ~2.9% (May 2022) to ~4.8% (Oct 2023) and stayed ~4.3-4.6% through 2024-2025, and forecasters/markets persistently UNDER-predicted yields (consensus ~3.7% vs actual ~4.7%), with yields even rising as the Fed cut in 2024. So 'borrow cheaper / for longer than markets priced' is not supported over this window — costs came in higher than priced. STRONG CAVEAT: the claim's own horizon is 'for decades to come,' and a relative-to-May-2022-expectations bet over decades is only partially testable on a ~3-year window; the early-window verdict (costs above expectations) could in principle reverse over a true multi-decade horizon. The prior file pass marked this not_scoreable for that reason. Recorded here as resolved on the supplied windowed criterion with the windowed facts running against the claim, and the decades-horizon limitation flagged for the quantify stage. Yield data via multpl (FRED DGS10 underlying); forecast-miss evidence from Econbrowser/CBO and J.P. Morgan. (Maps to file record id peter-zeihan-202205-us-low-borrowing-costs-decades.)

Sources

• The Bond Market and Inflation

  YouTube · 2022-05-26

  Source