Full record
HitgeopoliticsThe Ukraine-Russia war will last months, probably years, beyond May 2022.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“we are only in the very opening act of this conflict we have a long way to go regardless of whether the ukrainians can hold the line or not this is going to last months probably years”
The Ukraine-Russia war will last months, probably years, beyond May 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-05-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.6
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-05-04
The active Russia-Ukraine war continues well beyond a year from May 2022 (into the years range), rather than ending within months.
Criterion clearly met: the active Russia-Ukraine war continued well beyond a year from May 2022, lasting into the multi-year range with no resolution by the 2025-05-04 deadline. No conflicting evidence. resolved_on set to the deadline (the date by which the multi-year continuation was confirmed); the condition was already satisfied earlier (the war passed its one-year mark in Feb 2023 and continued). Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Russia's Challenges in the Ukraine War
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
As of the deadline window (through May 2025, ~3 years after the May 2022 statement), the Russia-Ukraine war remained an active, large-scale conflict. CFR's Global Conflict Tracker reports Russia still occupied roughly 20% of Ukraine and gained nearly 5,000 sq km of territory in 2025, with grinding offensives in Donetsk/Kharkiv and intensified operations around Pokrovsk through late 2025. No ceasefire or end to fighting had occurred — directly satisfying the criterion that the war lasts into the 'years' range rather than ending within months.
Wikipedia timeline of the Russo-Ukrainian war (1 Jan 2025 – 31 May 2025) documents continuous active hostilities through the deadline period: Putin's declared unilateral 'Easter' ceasefire (to ~21 April 2025) was reported by Ukraine to be violated with continued Russian attacks; both sides conducted offensive operations (e.g., renewed Ukrainian activity in Kursk Oblast) and strikes. Confirms the war was unambiguously still active at the 2025-05-04 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.6- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Ukraine-Russia war will last months, probably years, be…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources