Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsThe Russian government will not be changed by a popular revolt or mass uprising, at least within about a year of May 2022.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“so if the russian government's going to change it's not going to be via this vector at least not now”
The Russian government will not be changed by a popular revolt or mass uprising, at least within about a year of May 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-05-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-05-12
Within ~12 months, there is no mass popular uprising/revolt that removes or forces a change in Russia's government.
Criterion (no mass popular uprising/revolt removes or forces a change in Russia's government within ~12 months of May 2022) is clearly met. No popular revolt or regime change occurred in the window. The Wagner rebellion (a) fell outside the window (23-24 Jun 2023, ~6 weeks after the 2023-05-12 deadline) and (b) was an elite/paramilitary mutiny, not a popular mass uprising, and did not change the government regardless. Resolved_on set to the deadline 2023-05-12. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Russian Oligarchs and Putin's Future
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Within the prediction window (12 May 2022 - 12 May 2023) there was no mass popular uprising or revolt that changed Russia's government. The only significant challenge, the Wagner Group rebellion, occurred 23-24 June 2023 — AFTER the 2023-05-12 deadline — and even then it was an armed mutiny by a paramilitary group, NOT a popular mass uprising, and did NOT remove or force a change in the Russian government (Putin remained; resolved via a Lukashenko-brokered deal).
Wikipedia/analysts: 'There were no sizeable spontaneous displays of public support'; the Russian population's response was 'silent' and apathetic. The rebellion 'did not constitute a popular mass uprising or regime change attempt by the general population,' and Putin's government 'remained unchanged and in full control.'
Carnegie Endowment / Wilson Center analyses characterize the Wagner mutiny as the most significant challenge to the Russian state 'in recent times' but confirm Russia was 'not on the verge of a civil war or major upheaval' and that no popular revolt changed the government.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Russian government will not be changed by a popular rev…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources