Full record
MisssocietyChina will not develop its own mRNA vaccine within one to two years of May 2022 (by approximately May 2024), leaving lockdowns as its only public-health tool.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misssociety“there's no way that's going to happen in the next year or two so lockdowns are the only Public Health policy they have”
China will not develop its own mRNA vaccine within one to two years of May 2022 (by approximately May 2024), leaving lockdowns as its only public-health tool.
- Made on
- 2022-05-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.65
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-22
By approximately 2024-05-22, China has not produced its own domestically developed mRNA COVID vaccine in use.
Criterion (by ~2024-05-22 China has NOT produced its own domestically developed mRNA COVID vaccine in use) is NOT met: China's NMPA authorized the domestically developed SYS6006 (CSPC) mRNA vaccine for emergency use on 22 March 2023, with a second domestic mRNA candidate (RQ3013) in late-stage trials. resolved_on set to 2023-03-22 (the regulatory authorization date). One mild caveat for the 'in use' wording: the approval came just after China exited zero-COVID (Dec 2022) amid falling infections, and public reporting did not detail mass-deployment numbers; however the vaccine was domestically developed and authorized/available for use, satisfying the 'produced its own domestically developed mRNA vaccine in use' test. No credible evidence supports the predicted no-mRNA-vaccine outcome. Outcome value (o) not assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Tianjin, COVID, and Losing Chinese Labor
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
China approved its first domestically developed mRNA COVID-19 vaccine — SYS6006, made by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group — for emergency use on 22 March 2023, well before the ~2024-05-22 deadline. Al Jazeera reported the National/Beijing regulator granted emergency-use authorization; clinical data cited ~85.3% efficacy 14–28 days after a booster. This directly contradicts the claim that China would NOT develop its own mRNA vaccine within one-to-two years of May 2022.
Peer-reviewed and trade literature confirm SYS6006 (CSPC) was 'authorized for emergent use in China by the NMPA in March 2023' and was 'the first approved SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in China,' a domestically developed full-length-spike mRNA vaccine that progressed through Phase 1–3 trials in Chinese participants.
A second domestically developed Chinese mRNA vaccine, RQ3013 (RNACure / Fudan University / Walvax), also advanced through clinical trials including a Phase 3 trial reporting relative efficacy vs. another Chinese vaccine — further demonstrating that China developed indigenous mRNA COVID vaccines within the prediction window (by ~May 2024), not solely lockdowns as a public-health tool.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.65- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China will not develop its own mRNA vaccine within one to t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources