Full record
25% rightgeopoliticsSweden and Finland will both accede to NATO, joining together, with about a 67% probability.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightgeopolitics“Right now I'd say it's probably a two and three chance that each individual country will join and that they'll join together.”
Sweden and Finland will both accede to NATO, joining together, with about a 67% probability.
- Made on
- 2022-04-18
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.59
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-04-18
Within ~12 months, both Sweden and Finland accede to NATO (complete the accession process), and do so together.
Compound claim with two failed sub-conditions: (a) 'both accede within ~12 months' — false (Sweden acceded 2024-03-07, ~11 months after the 2023-04-18 deadline); (b) 'do so together' — false (Finland 2023-04-04 vs Sweden 2024-03-07, ~11 months apart). Finland alone met the timing. The probabilistic 67% framing does not change the resolution of the underlying event, which is determinable. resolved_on = deadline, when the within-window outcome (Sweden had not acceded; they did not join together) was settled. No outcome value (o) assigned per instructions.
Sources
Sweden and Finland Reconsider NATO
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Finland acceded to NATO on 2023-04-04 (31st member) — within the ~12-month window (made_on 2022-04-18, deadline 2023-04-18).
Sweden did NOT accede within the window. Sweden officially joined only on 2024-03-07 (32nd member), nearly a year after the 2023-04-18 deadline, after prolonged Turkish and Hungarian holdouts. Türkiye ratified Sweden's protocol 2024-01-25 and Hungary 2024-03-05.
Sweden–NATO relations (Wikipedia) confirms Sweden's accession date of 7 March 2024, contradicting the 'joining together' element of the prediction.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.59- How sure they sounded
- 67%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Sweden and Finland will both accede to NATO, joining togeth…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources