Prediction record
MisssocietyShenzhen and Guangzhou will be placed under COVID lockdown within a few days of April 14, 2022 (by approximately April 19, 2022).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misssociety“and it looks like within the next few days not just hong kong but shinzen and guangzhou are going to get locked down too”
Shenzhen and Guangzhou will be placed under COVID lockdown within a few days of April 14, 2022 (by approximately April 19, 2022).
- Made on
- 2022-04-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-04-19
By approximately 2022-04-19, both Shenzhen and Guangzhou are under official COVID lockdowns.
Criterion requires BOTH Shenzhen AND Guangzhou under official COVID lockdowns by approximately 2022-04-19. Evidence indicates the criterion was NOT met: (1) Shenzhen's only 2022 spring citywide lockdown was 14-20 March and had ended weeks before April 14 — it was reopened, not locked down, in the prediction window; (2) Guangzhou used mass testing plus targeted controls (district-level/partial measures, school closures, flight cuts) rather than a declared full citywide lockdown in mid-April 2022. Some districts in Guangzhou had localized restrictions, but reporting consistently distinguishes Guangzhou's approach from a full lockdown like Shanghai's. Note ambiguity: 'lockdown' is a matter of degree and Guangzhou had localized control zones, but the strong-form criterion (both cities under official citywide lockdowns) does not appear satisfied. Marking resolved (criterion not met) on the deadline date; the quantify stage should weigh whether Guangzhou's partial measures count.
Sources
In Shanghai, COVID Rattles the Chinese System
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Shenzhen's citywide COVID lockdown ran 14-20 March 2022 and was LIFTED on 21 March 2022, with subway/bus service and most businesses/factories resuming — roughly three weeks BEFORE the April 14 prediction date. Shenzhen was not under a citywide lockdown around mid-April 2022, and no new Shenzhen lockdown was imposed in the April 14-19 window.
Guangzhou's response to its April 2022 Omicron outbreak (which began 8 April) was mass citywide PCR testing across all 11 districts plus targeted/precise controls, school closures, and flight cancellations — explicitly contrasted in reporting with Shanghai's full lockdown. Guangzhou did NOT impose a full official citywide lockdown in the April 14-19 window; the outbreak was contained within ~18 days via testing/targeted measures.
Hong Kong Free Press (28 April 2022) reports Guangzhou rolled out mass testing of millions and cancelled flights over a suspected case, again describing testing-and-targeted-restriction measures rather than a comprehensive citywide lockdown during this period.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Shenzhen and Guangzhou will be placed under COVID lockdown…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources