Full record
HitenergyUS shale will add approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day of new production capacity within 12 months of March 2022.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitenergy“we were already on track to add about a million barrels per day of new capacity over the next 12 months”
US shale will add approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day of new production capacity within 12 months of March 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-03-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-17
By 2023-03-17, US shale oil production has increased by roughly 1,000,000 b/d versus the March 2022 baseline.
RESOLVED. U.S. crude oil production grew ~979,000 b/d from March 2022 to March 2023 per official EIA monthly data — closely matching the claimed 'approximately 1,000,000 b/d.' Caveat for quantify: the EIA total-crude series includes some non-shale (e.g., Gulf of Mexico/Alaska) volumes, but tight oil was the dominant growth source, so attributing ~1M b/d of new capacity to shale is well-supported. The prediction's word 'approximately' makes the ~979k figure a strong match. No outcome value assigned here. (March-to-March monthly comparison used to align with the stated 12-month window; note that production is volatile month-to-month, but the magnitude is robust.)
Sources
Deal With the Devil(s)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
EIA Monthly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (series MCRFPUS2, primary official data): March 2022 = 11,888 thousand b/d; March 2023 = 12,867 thousand b/d — an increase of approximately 979 thousand b/d (~1.0 million b/d) in total U.S. crude oil production over the 12-month window. (Context months: Feb 2022 11,465; Apr 2022 11,830; Feb 2023 12,621; Apr 2023 12,734.)
EIA FAQ: tight (shale) oil accounted for ~64% of total U.S. crude production (~8.32M b/d in 2023) and was the primary driver of U.S. production growth in this period, so essentially all of the ~1M b/d total-crude increase is attributable to shale/tight-oil basins. EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook similarly had total U.S. crude rising from ~11.7M b/d (2022 avg) toward ~12.4M b/d (2023 avg).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US shale will add approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources