Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsUkraine will soon begin sabotaging its own infrastructure to deter Russian forces.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“so we're not to the point yet where the ukrainians are sabotaging their own infrastructure in order to deter the russians but i can't imagine that that is far off”
Ukraine will soon begin sabotaging its own infrastructure to deter Russian forces.
- Made on
- 2022-03-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-03-31
By ~March 2023, Ukraine deliberately destroys/sabotages its own infrastructure (bridges, dams, plants) to impede Russian advance.
RESOLVED — criterion met, with one disambiguation. Ukraine deliberately destroyed its own infrastructure (multiple bridges on approaches to Kyiv; and blew a dam at Moshchun to flood the Irpin floodplain) in late Feb–March 2022 to impede the Russian advance, satisfying 'deliberately destroys/sabotages its own infrastructure (bridges, dams, plants) to impede Russian advance.' Timing note: this occurred even slightly before the prediction's made_on date (2022-03-07) and continued around it, and well within the window to ~March 2023, so the behavior the prediction described was occurring at and after the prediction time. DISAMBIGUATION to carry forward: the later high-profile destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam and the Antonivka Bridge (Nov 2022) was attributed to RUSSIA (retreating forces), not Ukraine — so those events must NOT be used as evidence for this Ukraine self-sabotage record; the early-2022 Kyiv-area bridge/dam demolitions by Ukraine are the load-bearing evidence. resolved_on (2022-03-31) marks the early-2022 self-sabotage episodes. No conflicting credible evidence on the Ukrainian early-2022 demolitions.
Sources
Odessa, and Beyond
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wikipedia, 'Bridges in the Russo-Ukrainian war': in the early days of the February 2022 invasion Ukrainian forces deliberately destroyed/damaged bridges on roads leading toward Kyiv to slow the Russian advance and protect the capital — Ukraine sabotaging its own infrastructure to impede Russia.
RFE/RL, 'Revealed: How Ukraine Blew Up A Dam To Save Kyiv': in early March 2022, at Moshchun on the Irpin River, Ukrainian forces blew up a dam to flood the area, pushing back Russian troops advancing on Kyiv — deliberate self-destruction of a dam to deter Russian forces.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Ukraine will soon begin sabotaging its own infrastructure t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources