Full record
MissenergyThe drop-off in Russian oil output will be steep rather than gradual.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“i'd argue it's going to be steep”
The drop-off in Russian oil output will be steep rather than gradual.
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-08
Within the window, Russian oil production falls sharply (a steep, near-term decline) rather than gradually, judged against pre-invasion output.
Deadline 2025-03-08. Criterion ('Russian oil production falls sharply/steeply near-term vs pre-invasion, rather than gradually'). Primary/official data (IEA, EIA) show the opposite: production held near pre-war ~10.7-10.8 mb/d and exports declined only modestly and gradually over years, not a steep near-term drop-off. Status resolved; criterion appears NOT met but no outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
China, Oil, and the Ukraine War
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
IEA (Aug 2022 OMR): by July 2022 Russian oil production was only ~310 kb/d below pre-war levels and total oil exports down just ~580 kb/d, as flows rerouted to India/China/Türkiye offset losses to Europe/US/Japan/Korea — a modest, gradual decline, not a steep collapse.
Russian liquids production averaged ~10.8 mb/d from March 2022 onward and was projected ~10.7 mb/d in 2023, roughly unchanged in 2024 — i.e. output stayed near pre-invasion levels rather than dropping off steeply. EIA STEO Russia analysis.
EIA: Russian crude + condensate exports averaged 5.0 mb/d across 2020-2024 and declined only modestly (about 4.8 mb/d in 2024 to 4.3 mb/d in 1H2025), described explicitly as a modest decline / resilience, not a collapse; the main change was destination shift (Europe 51%->12%, Asia 41%->81%).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The drop-off in Russian oil output will be steep rather tha…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources