Full record
MissenergyAs much as 5 million barrels per day of Russian crude will come offline within roughly three months of March 2022.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“We're looking at higher energy prices for the foreseeable future, because as many as 5 million barrels a day of Russian crude is going to be coming offline very soon.”
As much as 5 million barrels per day of Russian crude will come offline within roughly three months of March 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-08
By approximately 2022-06-08, Russian crude output/exports removed from the market approach ~5 million barrels per day.
Deadline ~2022-06-08. Criterion ('by ~2022-06-08, Russian crude removed from market approaches ~5 mb/d'). Official IEA/EIA data show actual disruption by mid-2022 was only ~0.3-0.6 mb/d (production/exports), far below 5 mb/d; volumes were largely rerouted, not removed. Status resolved; criterion appears NOT met, but no outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Russia Sanctions, and Nickel
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
IEA (Aug 2022 OMR): by July 2022 Russian oil production was only ~310 kb/d (0.31 mb/d) below pre-war levels and total oil exports down only ~580 kb/d (0.58 mb/d) — roughly an order of magnitude below the claimed ~5 mb/d, because exports rerouted to India/China/Türkiye offset embargo losses.
Even by early 2023 the IEA expected total Russian shut-in of only ~1.9 mb/d vs pre-war (an extra ~1.4 mb/d on top of ~0.5 mb/d) — still far short of 5 mb/d, and that was projected for 2023, well after the ~June 2022 deadline.
EIA confirms Russian crude+condensate exports stayed near the 2020-2024 average of ~5.0 mb/d and Russia successfully reoriented sales to Asia rather than going offline; no ~5 mb/d removal materialized in mid-2022.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
As much as 5 million barrels per day of Russian crude will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources