Full record
MissenergyRussia's ability to produce crude oil will fall by at least 50% as Western firms/technology withdraw after the Ukraine invasion.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“at least a 50% reduction in the ability of Russia to produce crude”
Russia's ability to produce crude oil will fall by at least 50% as Western firms/technology withdraw after the Ukraine invasion.
- Made on
- 2022-03-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-18
Resolved TRUE if Russian crude oil production fell by >=50% from its early-2022 (~10.5-11 Mb/d) level at any point through ~2025. Resolved FALSE if production stayed well above a 50% cut.
Clear miss on magnitude: actual decline ~3-4% vs. predicted >=50%. The 'half of output depends on Western firms' premise did not translate into the predicted collapse.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Russian crude/condensate output was ~10.9 Mb/d in 2023 and ~9.2-10.5 Mb/d in 2024 — a decline of only ~3-4%, nowhere near a 50% reduction. EIA and trade data show production remained broadly stable despite sanctions.
Statista/TheGlobalEconomy series corroborate Russian oil production in the ~9.2-10.9 Mb/d band through 2024, a low-single-digit-percent decline rather than a halving.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Russia's ability to produce crude oil will fall by at least…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources