Within a few weeks of March 23, 2022, ~4 million b/d of Russian crude leaving the market will produce the single largest oil-market disruption in human history.

Outcome evidence

• Russian crude was NOT removed from the market at ~4 mb/d by mid-2022; exports largely held up and were rerouted rather than lost. Russian oil exports were ~7.4 mb/d in July 2022, vs ~8 mb/d at the start of 2022 and the 2021 average of ~7.5 mb/d. IEA reported crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea slumped by ~2.2 mb/d since the conflict began, but about two-thirds of that was REROUTED to other markets (notably India and China), not removed from the market.

  Evidence

• Russian production dipped ~9% in April 2022 (~1 mb/d) but recovered; EIA reported Russian liquid-fuels output averaging ~10.8 million b/d since March 2022, far from a ~4 mb/d removal. Exports rebounded as Russia diverted barrels to India (record ~975,000 bpd by July 2022) and China.

  Evidence

• Even on a gross-redirection basis, the volume off Western markets (~2.2 mb/d) was below the largest historical single disruptions: the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution peaked at ~5.6 mb/d lost (IEA) / crude output down ~4.8 mb/d, the 1973-74 Arab embargo ~4.5 mb/d, and the 1991 Gulf War ~4.3 mb/d. Spring-2022 Russian supply loss did not constitute the single largest oil-market disruption in recorded history.

  Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.