The era of low US interest rates will end within about 12 months of February 2022.

Outcome evidence

• The federal funds target range began 2022 at 0-0.25% (near-zero, the level held since March 2020). Per Fed primary sources, by the Dec 14, 2022 FOMC decision the range was 4.25-4.50% — a rise of roughly 425 basis points off the near-zero lows, well above the 2021 level, achieved well before the ~Feb 24, 2023 deadline.

  EvidenceArchive

• December 14, 2022 FOMC Implementation Note confirms the federal funds target range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent effective Dec 15, 2022 — materially above the near-zero 2021 level. The Fed continued raising rates in early 2023 (Feb 1, 2023 to 4.50-4.75%), so as of ~Feb 2023 the era of low rates had clearly ended.

  Evidence

• FRED Federal Funds Effective Rate series corroborates the effective rate rising from ~0.08% in early 2022 to ~4.1% by December 2022 and ~4.3-4.6% in early 2023, confirming benchmark US rates rose materially off their near-zero lows by ~Feb 2023.

  Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.