Prediction record
HiteconomyThe US Federal Reserve will deliver larger, sooner rate hikes than previously expected to bring inflation under control (within ~12 months, by ~2023-02).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“expect to see more rates that are bigger sooner”
The US Federal Reserve will deliver larger, sooner rate hikes than previously expected to bring inflation under control (within ~12 months, by ~2023-02).
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-02-24
Within ~12 months, the Fed raises rates more aggressively and earlier than the pre-Feb-2022 expectation (e.g. larger hikes / a faster path than the then-consensus dot-plot).
Resolved within the ~12-month window (deadline 2023-02-24). The prediction was clearly borne out: actual 2022 tightening (425bp) dwarfed the Dec-2021 dot-plot consensus (~75bp), and was delivered faster and in larger increments. Clean, primary-sourced (Federal Reserve) factual outcome. Do not assign outcome value here.
Sources
Fed Reserve
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Pre-Feb-2022 expectation (Dec 15, 2021 FOMC dot plot): 12 of 18 policymakers projected at least three 25bp hikes in 2022 — i.e., the then-consensus was ~75bp of tightening over 2022, with liftoff expected around spring 2022.
Actual: In 2022 the FOMC raised the target range by 425bp total (25bp in March, then 50bp in May, and 75bp at EACH of June, July, Sept, Nov, then 50bp in Dec) — vastly larger and faster than the ~75bp December-2021 expectation. By the Feb 24, 2023 deadline the range was 4.50-4.75% (after the Feb 1, 2023 25bp hike), up from 0-0.25%.
Independent framing: this was the fastest Fed tightening cycle in four decades (525bp from March 2022 to July 2023), with an unprecedented run of four consecutive 75bp hikes — confirming the hikes were both larger and sooner than the pre-Feb-2022 consensus.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US Federal Reserve will deliver larger, sooner rate hik…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources