Full record
MisspoliticsThe US Postal Service will announce a COVID-19 vaccine mandate within a week of September 17, 2021.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misspolitics“companies left right and Center Chevron Exxon Delta United Airlines the post office is probably going to get in there within the next week”
The US Postal Service will announce a COVID-19 vaccine mandate within a week of September 17, 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-09-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-09-24
By ~2021-09-24, USPS publicly announces a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for its workforce.
Criterion: by ~2021-09-24, USPS publicly announces a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for its workforce. Clear, well-documented outcome: USPS did NOT announce such a mandate in that window (or ever) — its Sept 16 statement explicitly deferred to a future OSHA ETS, and it later sought exemption from even that. Direction of evidence: contradicts the prediction. 'resolved' = record-status (deadline 2021-09-24 passed, outcome determinable); no outcome value (o) assigned here.
Sources
Where in the World: Drangajökull, and Horse Meds
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
USPS's own official newsroom statement dated September 16, 2021 took a wait-and-see posture rather than announcing a mandate: USPS said it was working with union leadership 'so that once OSHA's COVID-19 Vaccination Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) is issued we can move quickly to determine its applicability to our employees.' No USPS workforce vaccine mandate was announced.
Contemporaneous reporting (Sept 2021) confirms USPS took a 'wait-and-see approach on COVID-19 vaccine mandates,' that USPS was carved out of Biden's Sept 9, 2021 federal-workforce executive order, and that any vaccination/testing requirement would be subject to mandatory union negotiation — i.e., no unilateral mandate announced in the week after Sept 17.
Subsequent timeline confirms USPS never issued its own mandate: it became subject only to OSHA's 100+ employee ETS (issued Nov 5, 2021), then in January 2022 sought a 120-day exemption from that ETS rather than implementing a mandate; OSHA withdrew the ETS effective Jan 26, 2022. At no point — and specifically not by Sept 24, 2021 — did USPS announce a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for its workforce.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US Postal Service will announce a COVID-19 vaccine mand…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-09-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources