Prediction record
MisssocietyThe US will reach COVID-19 herd immunity (roughly 70-85% of the population immunized) by the end of summer 2021.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misssociety“By the end of the summer of 2020 2021 we're there.”
The US will reach COVID-19 herd immunity (roughly 70-85% of the population immunized) by the end of summer 2021.
- Made on
- 2020-12-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-09-22
By the end of summer 2021, roughly 70-85% of the US population had been immunized (vaccination plus prior infection) reaching the herd-immunity range.
Criterion = whether ~70-85% of the US population had been immunized (vaccination + prior infection), reaching herd immunity, by end of summer 2021 (deadline 2021-09-22, ~autumnal equinox). Outcome: NOT reached. State-level presumed immunity ranged 43-71% as of late Aug 2021 and no state crossed the ~78%+ threshold for the then-circulating (Delta) variant. The July-Aug-Sep 2021 Delta surge is itself dispositive evidence that herd immunity was not achieved. Resolved firmly against the prediction. Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Video Dispatch: Good News on the Vaccine Front
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Peer-reviewed estimates (Open Forum Infectious Diseases / Oxford) of presumed US population immunity (vaccination + prior infection) as of Aug 26, 2021 ranged from 43.1% (Idaho) to 70.6% (New Jersey) by state. Using an R0 of 4.5 for more transmissible variants (~78% herd threshold), NO state reached the herd-immunity threshold; the Delta threshold is likely even higher. Nationally the US was well below the 70-85% herd range.
Penn State (Eberly College of Science) summary of research finding that overestimating population immunity contributed to the US Delta surge: actual southern-New-England immunity by the time Delta arrived (July 2021) was ~67%, not the 80-85% some had estimated, leaving roughly one-third of residents fully susceptible. The large summer 2021 Delta surge itself is direct evidence the US had NOT reached herd immunity.
CDC MMWR (mm7025e1): by May 22, 2021 only 57.0% of US adults aged 18+ had received at least one dose, with younger adults far behind (38.3% of 18-29). Vaccination plateaued through summer 2021, so even adding prior-infection immunity the population fell short of the 70-85% range by end of summer.
Corrections
- Date: 2021-09-17 is the YouTube re-upload date (shared batch timestamp across three re-posted dispatches; confirmed as the transcript upload_date). Dispatch content (Thanksgiving week, FDA ruling window, J&J not yet approved — all present in the cached transcript) and the canonical zeihan.com post ('Posted on December 3, 2020') place the original utterance at 2020-12-03. The 'end of summer 2021' forecast was made ~9.5 months ahead, not 5 days ahead.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US will reach COVID-19 herd immunity (roughly 70-85% of…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources