Prediction record
MisssocietyWithin roughly six months, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will outsell Pfizer and Moderna combined.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misssociety“in the longer run six months or so i expect the oxford vaccine to actually outsell both pfizer and modernity combined”
Within roughly six months, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will outsell Pfizer and Moderna combined.
- Made on
- 2020-12-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-06-30
By ~mid-2021, global doses delivered of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine exceed combined Pfizer + Moderna doses.
Criterion = 'By ~mid-2021, global AstraZeneca doses exceed combined Pfizer + Moderna doses.' Made_on (2021-09-17) post-dates the deadline (2021-06-30): Zeihan framed it as 'within roughly six months' but the checkable mid-2021 window is the criterion. Best available official/manufacturer data resolve the factual question against the claim: Pfizer alone (~1B+ by end-Q2) plus Moderna (hundreds of millions by mid-2021) exceeded AstraZeneca's mid-2021 total. MEASUREMENT AMBIGUITY noted for the next stage (does NOT flip the conclusion): (a) 'delivered/supplied/released-for-supply' vs 'administered' differ — e.g. AstraZeneca's own SEC 6-K reports AstraZeneca-direct (ex-SII) released only ~80M doses in H1 2021, while AstraZeneca-plus-all-sublicensees reached ~1.5B by end-Sept; (b) whether Serum Institute of India / Covishield doses (the bulk of AZ volume, largely administered in India) count toward 'the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.' Under the most generous reading for the claim (counting ALL Covishield + every sub-licensee dose as delivered), AstraZeneca's mid-2021 total is at most comparable to Pfizer alone and still falls short of Pfizer+Moderna combined. No assignment of outcome value here.
Sources
Vaccine Update 12/21/2020
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
By the end of Q2 2021 (mid-2021), Pfizer/BioNTech ALONE had delivered/supplied more than 1 billion doses of BNT162b2 globally. Pfizer's contracted 2021 deliveries were ~1.6-2.1 billion doses, heavily front-loaded into developed markets. This establishes that Pfizer's single-manufacturer mid-2021 total was already ~1 billion+, before adding Moderna.
AstraZeneca and ALL its sub-licensing partners (including Serum Institute of India / Covishield) reached only ~1.5 billion doses delivered globally as of Sept 30, 2021, and the '2 billion doses supplied' milestone was not reached until November 2021 (less than 12 months after first approval). Working backward, AstraZeneca's mid-2021 (June 30) cumulative supplied total was well below its end-Q3 figure of ~1.5B — i.e., roughly on the order of Pfizer's alone, not exceeding Pfizer PLUS Moderna combined.
Moderna guided to 200-250 million doses delivered in Q2 2021 alone, with cumulative 2021 deliveries of ~800M-1B. Adding Moderna's hundreds of millions of mid-2021 doses on top of Pfizer's ~1 billion+ puts the Pfizer+Moderna combined mid-2021 total well above AstraZeneca's mid-2021 supplied/administered total under any reasonable counting.
Corrections
- Date: 2021-09-17 is the YouTube re-upload date; clip is December 2020 (title 'Vaccine Update 12/21/2020'; in-clip 'distribution starts today december 20', 'merry christmas'). Current made_on post-dates the record's own deadline (2021-06-30), impossible for a forward prediction; true authoring date 2020-12-21 (in-window).
- Prediction timeframe: With made_on corrected to 2020-12-21 the re-upload caveat is no longer needed; deadline derives cleanly from the verbatim anchored to made_on.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Within roughly six months, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine w…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources