Prediction record
MisstechThe current semiconductor supply-chain disruption will be resolved within roughly 9 to 12 months.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“We will get through this. The retooling has already been done, the supply chain is up and running again. My concern is for the future.”
The current semiconductor supply-chain disruption will be resolved within roughly 9 to 12 months.
- Made on
- 2021-09-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-09-17
By ~mid/late 2022, the acute chip shortage materially eases (lead times normalize toward pre-shortage levels).
Checkable against lead-time normalization per the criterion. The claim predicted resolution within ~9-12 months (by ~September 17, 2022). At that deadline, lead times were still near their record peak (~26 weeks vs. ~9-12 normal) and automakers were still halting production; the shortage did not 'materially ease toward pre-shortage levels' until late 2022 into 2023. Evidence runs against the claim's timing. Note: the disruption did eventually resolve, but materially later than predicted — the record is resolvable on its specific timing criterion.
Sources
Where in the World: Crater Lake, and Semiconductors
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Susquehanna Financial Group lead-time tracking: average semiconductor lead times peaked at a record 27.1 weeks in May 2022 and were still ~26.3 weeks in September 2022 (down only ~4 days from August). Pre-shortage/normal lead times were roughly 9-12 weeks (e.g., Broadcom 12.2 weeks in Feb 2020). At the record's ~mid/late-2022 deadline, lead times remained roughly double pre-shortage levels — the acute shortage had NOT materially eased toward normal, contradicting the predicted 9-12 month resolution.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Chicago Fed Letter no. 473, 2022): 'Why the Automotive Chip Crisis Isn't Over (Yet)' — an authoritative source documenting that the chip shortage remained unresolved for the auto industry through 2022, with lead times stretched to as much as 4x pre-pandemic.
Contemporary reporting (The Register, Oct 26, 2022) and S&P Global confirm key-chip shortages were still forcing automaker production halts in late 2022 (e.g., Volvo factory closure, Toyota plant disruptions), with normalization expected only well into 2023.
The acute shortage materially eased only in late 2022/2023: Susquehanna recorded the largest monthly lead-time drop since 2017 in December 2022 (to ~24 weeks), and the shortage 'mostly subsided' / industry 'largely recovered' in 2023 — i.e., AFTER the prediction's 9-12 month window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The current semiconductor supply-chain disruption will be r…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-09-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources