Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsAustralia will very soon field air- and sea-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 1,500 miles.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“the australians will very soon have air and sea lot launched cruise missiles some of which have a range in excess of 1500 miles”
Australia will very soon field air- and sea-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 1,500 miles.
- Made on
- 2021-09-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-09-20
By ~Sept 2022, Australia has fielded/acquired air- or sea-launched cruise missiles with >1,500-mile range; checkable against defense procurement.
(2) RANGE is NOT a basis for the resolution: Tomahawk Block IV = 1,600 km/994 mi, Block V > 1,666 km, and Australia's own Dec-2024 Defence release advertises up to 2,500 km (~1,550 mi), so the '>1,500-mile' threshold is plausibly satisfied. The record resolves FALSE solely on TIMING.
Sources
Where in the World: Home, and Cruise Missiles
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
By the deadline window (~Sept 2022), Australia had ANNOUNCED/planned its long-range strike acquisitions (Tomahawk for Hobart-class destroyers, JASSM-ER for F/A-18F and F-35A, announced from Sept 2021 under AUKUS) but had NOT yet FIELDED them. The US State Department only APPROVED the Foreign Military Sale of up to 200 Block V / 20 Block IV Tomahawks in March 2023 — after the Sept 2022 deadline.
Australia did not actually fire/operationalise a Tomahawk until late 2024: the Royal Australian Navy conducted its first successful Tomahawk firing on ~10 December 2024, described officially as making Australia only the third country to acquire and fire the missile. This confirms the capability was NOT fielded by ~Sept 2022.
Range/capability context: Tomahawk range is commonly cited at ~1,500-1,600 km (~930-1,000 miles); JASSM-ER ~900 km (~560 miles). Notably, the air-/sea-launched cruise missiles Australia moved to acquire have published ranges BELOW the claimed '>1,500 miles' (~2,400 km) threshold — the >1,500-mile range applies to the (later, separate) submarine-launched/extended programs, not the cruise missiles fielded in this window.
Corrections
- resolution notes: Original range argument understates Tomahawk Block IV/V range and is contradicted by Australia's own 2,500 km figure; resolution must rest only on the unambiguous timing failure.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Australia will very soon field air- and sea-launched cruise…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-09-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources