Full record
MisssocietyThe United States will experience one final wave of COVID-19 infections in summer 2021, with no further waves after it.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misssociety“we're going to have one final wave of infections this summer”
The United States will experience one final wave of COVID-19 infections in summer 2021, with no further waves after it.
- Made on
- 2021-06-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-02
The US had a single COVID-19 infection wave during summer 2021 and recorded no distinct further infection wave after summer 2021.
Criterion: summer 2021 was a single US wave with NO distinct further wave after it. Decisively FALSE — the winter 2021–2022 Omicron wave was the largest US case wave of the pandemic and occurred after summer 2021, with multiple additional waves following. Unambiguous; no conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Video Dispatch: 6/4/2021
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
After the summer 2021 Delta wave, the US experienced a massive distinct Omicron wave in winter 2021–2022: Omicron was first identified in the US on Dec 1, 2021 and became dominant by mid-January 2022; weekly infections peaked at 5,630,736 the week of Jan 19, 2022 and weekly deaths peaked at 17,373 the week of Feb 2, 2022 — the highest case counts of the entire pandemic, clearly a further wave after summer 2021.
CDC MMWR documents the Omicron surge of Dec 2021–Jan 2022 with record-high US hospitalizations and cases, confirming a separate, larger infection wave occurring well after summer 2021.
CDC notes COVID-19 continued to surge in subsequent periods (additional Omicron-subvariant waves through 2022 and into later years), so summer 2021 was far from the final US wave.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The United States will experience one final wave of COVID-1…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-06-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources