Full record
MisstechDeepSeek releases its v4 model before the end of February 2026.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“DeepSeek v4 is dropping this month and western press has been uninterested. There is a convergence and commoditization happening right before our eyes.”
DeepSeek releases its v4 model before the end of February 2026.
- Made on
- 2026-02-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.89
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-02-28
DeepSeek publicly releases a model branded v4 (DeepSeek-V4, or the equivalent successor branding to V3) on or before 2026-02-28, evidenced by a public weights drop, API availability or an official DeepSeek launch announcement. A release after 2026-02-28, or no release, resolves the claim false.
All three evidence routes named in the criterion (public weights drop, API availability, official launch announcement) point to the same date range: weights 2026-04-22, official announcement and API availability 2026-04-24. None occurred on or before 2026-02-28, and DeepSeek published nothing in February 2026. Per the criterion's explicit wording ('A release after 2026-02-28, or no release, resolves the claim false'), the record is fully resolved on primary/official DeepSeek sources with no conflicting credible evidence. Caveat noted for transparency: Hugging Face createdAt is repo-creation time, which is a lower bound on public availability, but since it falls after the deadline it only reinforces the finding. resolved_on set to the deadline 2026-02-28, the date the window closed with no release. Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned.
Sources
Note: 'DeepSeek v4 is dropping this month'
Substack Notes (Michael Burry) ·
Evidence of what happened
DeepSeek official announcement, "DeepSeek-V4 Preview Release", dated 2026/04/24 on DeepSeek's own API docs news channel: "DeepSeek-V4 Preview is officially live & open-sourced", announcing DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total / 49B active params) and DeepSeek-V4-Flash (284B total / 13B active), open weights on Hugging Face, chat.deepseek.com availability, and "API is updated & available today". This is the official V4 launch and it is dated April 24, 2026, roughly eight weeks AFTER the 2026-02-28 deadline.
Hugging Face model registry for the official deepseek-ai organization (the channel DeepSeek uses for weights drops): DeepSeek-V4-Pro, DeepSeek-V4-Pro-Base, DeepSeek-V4-Flash and DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Base all have createdAt 2026-04-22. The immediately preceding deepseek-ai repo is DeepSeek-OCR-2 (2026-01-27), and the preceding flagship LLM is DeepSeek-V3.2 (2025-12-01). No deepseek-ai model repository at all was created between 2026-01-27 and 2026-04-22, so there was no V4 weights drop on or before 2026-02-28.
DeepSeek's official news index (sitemap of api-docs.deepseek.com) lists news posts in date order: news251201 (2025-12-01, DeepSeek-V3.2) followed directly by news260424 (2026-04-24, DeepSeek-V4 Preview). There is no DeepSeek announcement of any kind in February 2026, corroborating that no official V4 launch announcement existed within the claim window of 2026-02-16 to 2026-02-28.
DeepSeek-V4-Pro model card on Hugging Face, the open-weights release referenced by the official launch post (weights published 2026-04-22, tech report DeepSeek_V4.pdf hosted in the same repo). Confirms V4 is the successor branding to V3 and that its public availability began in April 2026.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.89- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
DeepSeek releases its v4 model before the end of February 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-02-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources