Full record
HiteconomyUS CPI inflation falls further, possibly turning negative, during the second half of 2023.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see the CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It's not hard.”
US CPI inflation falls further, possibly turning negative, during the second half of 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-01-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Resolves true if US headline CPI inflation (BLS CPI-U, year-over-year) in the second half of 2023 is lower than the most recent reading published when the claim was made (the November 2022 report), i.e. disinflation continues into 2H 2023. Outright negative year-over-year CPI is the hedged 'possibly' branch and is not required for a true resolution.
Criterion's required branch is satisfied on primary BLS data: headline CPI-U year-over-year in 2H 2023 (3.1% to 3.7%) is far lower than the 7.1% November 2022 reading that was the latest published print when the claim was made. Baseline choice is not load-bearing: using the December 2022 report instead (published January 12, 2023, +6.45% YoY) gives the same direction. The hedged 'possibly negative' branch did NOT occur (YoY inflation never went negative; the 2023 low was +2.97% in June, and within 2H 2023 the low was +3.14% in November), but the criterion explicitly states outright negative YoY is not required. One nuance worth carrying forward for the quantify stage: the disinflation path within 2H 2023 was not monotonic (YoY rose from 3.18% in July to 3.70% in September before easing), so 'falls further' holds against the stated November 2022 baseline but not month-over-month across the whole half. Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned.
Sources
US headed for recession and another inflation spike in 2023, famed investor Michael Burry says
Fox Business ·
Big Short's Michael Burry calls second 'inflation spike'
ETF Stream ·
U.S. Market Recession Imminent in H2 2023: Michael Burry
Investing.com / Coin Edition ·
Famed investor Michael Burry predicts U.S. recession "by any definition"
CBS News ·
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts a US recession in 2023 and another inflation spike
Yahoo Finance / Business Insider ·
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry rang the recession alarm, bet against the S&P 500, and scooped up bargains in 2023
Business Insider ·
Evidence of what happened
Baseline reading available when the claim was made: BLS CPI-U, all items, US city average, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0) = 297.711 in November 2022 vs 277.948 in November 2021, i.e. +7.11% year-over-year (BLS-rounded 7.1%). This is the November 2022 CPI report, published December 13, 2022, the most recent CPI release in existence on 2023-01-01. Values pulled directly from the BLS public timeseries API.
BLS CPI-U (CUUR0000SA0) year-over-year inflation for every month of 2H 2023, computed from the official index: July 2023 +3.18%, August +3.67%, September +3.70%, October +3.24%, November +3.14%, December +3.35% (BLS-rounded 3.2%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.2%, 3.1%, 3.4%). Every 2H 2023 month is roughly 3.4 to 4.0 percentage points BELOW the 7.11% November 2022 baseline, so disinflation clearly continued into 2H 2023.
Canonical BLS publication of the baseline figure: Consumer Price Index news release for November 2022, released December 13, 2022 (all items up 7.1 percent over the last 12 months, NSA). Cited as the official published counterpart to the API-derived index values above; the BLS site blocks automated fetches, so the numbers here were computed from the official CPI-U index series rather than scraped from this page.
Canonical BLS publication of the final 2H 2023 figure: Consumer Price Index news release for December 2023, released January 11, 2024 (all items up 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, NSA), matching the 3.35% computed from the CPI-U index. Same fetch caveat as above.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US CPI inflation falls further, possibly turning negative,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources