Full record
HiteconomyUS CPI inflation is lower in the second half of 2023 than at the time of the post, and possibly negative.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It's not hard.”
US CPI inflation is lower in the second half of 2023 than at the time of the post, and possibly negative.
- Made on
- 2023-01-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-11
Resolves TRUE if US headline CPI year-over-year inflation in the second half of 2023 (the July through December 2023 prints, BLS CPI-U, NSA) is lower than the 6.5% year-over-year rate reported for December 2022 that stood when the post was made. Resolves FALSE if it is equal or higher. The 'possibly negative' element is hedged and is recorded as a secondary sub-claim (year-over-year CPI below 0% in any 2H 2023 month), not as the scored direction.
The asserted outcome (CPI y/y lower in 2H 2023 than the ~6.5% December 2022 baseline) is met unambiguously: all six prints are below the baseline and the average (3.4%) is well under it. The hedged extension (a negative y/y print) is recorded as NOT occurring -- the minimum 2H 2023 y/y print was 3.1% -- but per the criterion this is not required for a correct resolution and should be carried as a recorded sub-fact only, not as the asserted outcome. resolved_on is set to 2024-01-11, the publication date of the December 2023 CPI, which is the last print inside the 2H 2023 window and the point at which the whole-half comparison became determinable. Headline CPI NSA 12-month figures are not revised after publication, so these values are final. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value (o) assigned per instructions.
Sources
Famed investor Michael Burry predicts U.S. recession "by any definition"
CBS News ·
'Big Short' Michael Burry shares alarming market prediction for 2023
Finbold ·
'Big Short' Michael Burry Makes a Dire Prediction For 2023
TheStreet ·
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts a US recession in 2023 and another inflation spike
Business Insider ·
Evidence of what happened
Baseline print available when the claim was made (2023-01-01 post, last published print being December 2022 released 2023-01-12; the criterion fixes the comparison at ~6.5%): BLS CPI news release for December 2022 (USDL-23-0017) states "Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment."
All six 2H 2023 headline CPI-U y/y prints came in far below the 6.5% baseline, satisfying both parts of the criterion (at least one print below 6.5%, and the 2H prints do not average above 6.5%): July 2023 3.2% (released 2023-08-10), August 3.7% (2023-09-13), September 3.7% (2023-10-12), October 3.2% (2023-11-14), November 3.1% (2023-12-12), December 3.4% (2024-01-11). Every single print is below the baseline; the six-print average is 3.4%, roughly half the baseline rate. Verified by reading each BLS release PDF via the US Department of Labor mirror.
Closing print of the window: BLS CPI news release for December 2023 (USDL-24-0019, published 2024-01-11) states "Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment."
The hedged "possibly negative" sub-clause did NOT occur: no 2H 2023 month printed a negative headline CPI y/y rate. Underlying BLS index series CUUR0000SA0 confirms the price level rose year-over-year in every month of 2H 2023 (e.g. December 2023 = 306.746 vs December 2022 = 296.797, +3.35%; November 2023 = 307.051 vs November 2022 = 297.711, +3.14%). The lowest y/y print of the half was 3.1% in November 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US CPI inflation is lower in the second half of 2023 than a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources