Full record
MisseconomyThe US is in a recession that extends for multiple years, because no force or strategy exists to pull the economy out of it.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“What strategy will pull us out of this real recession? What forces could pull us so? There are none. So we are really looking at an extended multiyear recession.”
The US is in a recession that extends for multiple years, because no force or strategy exists to pull the economy out of it.
- Made on
- 2022-11-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-07-30
Resolves true if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee dates a US recession that begins on or before 2025-11-29 and lasts longer than twelve months, or if US real GDP contracts in four or more quarters within that window. A single two-quarter technical contraction does not satisfy 'extended multiyear'.
Both limbs of the written criterion fail cleanly: no NBER-dated contraction of any length begins in 2022-11-29 to 2025-11-29, and there are never four (or even two) consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in the window. The single negative quarter (2025Q1, -0.6% SAAR) is expressly excluded by the criterion's final sentence ("A single quarter or two of contraction... does not satisfy it"). One documented caveat: NBER dates business-cycle peaks retrospectively, typically 4-21 months after the fact, so in principle a peak inside the window could still be announced. That residual risk is effectively nil here, because the criterion requires a contraction of 12 months or more beginning on or before 2025-11-29, and real GDP grew in all five quarters from 2025Q2 through 2026Q2 while payrolls rose and unemployment fell over the same span. resolved_on is set to 2026-07-30, the date of the BEA Q2 2026 advance estimate that closes off the last window in which a qualifying contraction could still be dated, rather than to the 2025-11-29 deadline. Searched for conflicting credible evidence: commentary during 2025 speculated about a shallow recession, but no official dating body declared one and no data series supports a qualifying contraction, so there is no genuine conflict of credible sources. No outcome value (o) assigned per instructions.
Sources
Hedge funder Michael Burry made famous in 'The Big Short' warns of an 'extended multiyear recession'
Fortune ·
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry sounds the recession alarm, warning the US economy faces a multiyear downturn
Business Insider (via Yahoo) ·
"Big Short" Investor Michael Burry Warns of "Extended Multi-Year Recession"
USA Herald ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER limb of the criterion fails: the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements page lists no announcement newer than 2021-07-19 ("Determination of the April 2020 Trough"). No business-cycle PEAK has been announced after February 2020, so no NBER-dated contraction of any length begins inside the 2022-11-29 to 2025-11-29 window.
NBER's official US business cycle expansions and contractions table shows the most recent peak as February 2020 and the most recent trough as April 2020, with no later peak listed. The US has been in an NBER-dated expansion continuously since April 2020, spanning the entire claim window.
GDP limb of the criterion fails: BEA real GDP, percent change from preceding quarter at annual rate, for every quarter in the window: 2022Q4 +2.8, 2023Q1 +2.9, 2023Q2 +2.5, 2023Q3 +4.7, 2023Q4 +3.4, 2024Q1 +0.8, 2024Q2 +3.6, 2024Q3 +3.3, 2024Q4 +1.9, 2025Q1 -0.6, 2025Q2 +3.8, 2025Q3 +4.4, 2025Q4 +0.5. Exactly ONE negative quarter (2025Q1) occurs in the window; there is never even two consecutive negative quarters, let alone the four or more the criterion requires.
Post-window data closes off any possibility of a 12-month-or-longer contraction that began on or before 2025-11-29 being dated later. BEA's latest release (Q2 2026 advance estimate, released 2026-07-30) reports real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in 2026Q2, after +2.1 percent in 2026Q1. A contraction starting by November 2025 would have to run into at least November 2026 to satisfy the criterion, but the five quarters from 2025Q2 through 2026Q2 all show positive growth.
NBER-based recession indicator (FRED series USREC, which is 1 for every month from an NBER peak through the trough) equals 0 for all 54 months from January 2022 through June 2026 inclusive. No month in the claim window is flagged as a recession month.
Labor-market corroboration that no broad, deep, sustained contraction began in the window (NBER weights employment and income heavily, not GDP alone): BLS total nonfarm payrolls were 158,316k in Dec 2024, 158,449k in Nov 2025 and 158,984k in Jun 2026 (flat-to-rising, no sustained decline); the unemployment rate drifted from 4.1% (Dec 2024) to a high of 4.5% (Nov 2025) and back down to 4.2% (Jun 2026).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US is in a recession that extends for multiple years, b…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources