Full record
HiteconomyUS CPI inflation disinflates in the second half of 2022 as the retail inventory glut (the bullwhip effect) unwinds.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“This supply glut at retail is the Bullwhip Effect. Google it. Worth understanding for your investing endeavors. Deflationary pulses from this- -> disinflation in CPI later this year --> Fed reverses itself on rates and QT --> Cycles.”
US CPI inflation disinflates in the second half of 2022 as the retail inventory glut (the bullwhip effect) unwinds.
- Made on
- 2022-06-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
Resolves true if US headline CPI inflation (BLS CPI-U, year-over-year) decelerates over the second half of 2022, i.e. the December 2022 year-over-year rate is below the rate in the most recent report available when the claim was made (the May 2022 report). A single month's blip does not suffice; the rate must be lower into year-end.
Criterion is purely a CPI path test and is met on both prongs: December 2022 headline CPI year-over-year (6.45 percent) is below the May 2022 report rate available when the claim was made (8.58 percent), and the deceleration is monotonic across the six months from the June 2022 peak rather than a one-month blip. Methodological point in favour of these figures: CUUR0000SA0 is the NOT seasonally adjusted CPI-U series, which BLS does not revise, so these year-over-year rates are final and vintage-independent. Rates computed from BLS index values match BLS published headline figures to rounding (8.6 percent for May 2022, 9.1 percent for June 2022, 6.5 percent for December 2022). One flag for the quantify stage, not affecting resolution: the claim's canonical text attributes the disinflation to the retail inventory glut and bullwhip effect unwinding, but the written criterion tests only the CPI path and contains no causal-mechanism test, so the mechanism is not evidenced here and should not be scored as part of this record. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Michael Burry Sounds Fed Warning. What Is the Bullwhip Effect?
InvestorPlace ·
Michael Burry's Bullwhip Tweet Deserves Serious Attention
Bloomberg Opinion ·
Michael Burry of 'The Big Short' Fame Warns Fed May Alter Course
Bloomberg ·
Michael Burry Warns of the Bullwhip Effect, Says the Fed Could Reverse Course
StreetInsider ·
Michael Burry Warns of the Bullwhip Effect, Says the Fed Could Reverse Course
Investing.com ·
Mr. Big Short: Fed May do a 180 on Interest Rates
TheStreet ·
Burry's Bullwhip Effect Tweet Alarms the Masses
TipRanks ·
Legend Michael Burry Warns of 'Disinflation,' Soaring Growth Stocks
Nasdaq / InvestorPlace ·
Legend Michael Burry Warns of 'Disinflation,' Soaring Growth Stocks
InvestorPlace ·
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicted inflation would plunge - but his calls of a stock-market crash and recession are yet to come true
Business Insider (via Yahoo Finance) ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS CPI-U, All Items, US city average, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0), retrieved from the BLS public data API. 2021 index values: May 269.195, June 271.696, July 273.003, August 273.567, September 274.310, October 276.589, November 277.948, December 278.802. 2022 index values: May 292.296, June 296.311, July 296.276, August 296.171, September 296.808, October 298.012, November 297.711, December 296.797.
Year-over-year rates derived from those official index values, establishing the baseline required by the criterion: May 2022 = 8.58 percent (this is the most recent CPI report available on 2022-06-27 when the claim was made, since the May CPI report was released 2022-06-10 and the June report not until 2022-07-13). December 2022 = 6.45 percent. December 2022 is 2.13 percentage points BELOW the May 2022 baseline.
The decline was sustained through year-end rather than a single-month blip, as the criterion requires. Headline CPI year-over-year peaked in June 2022 and fell in every subsequent month of the second half: June 9.06 percent, July 8.52, August 8.26, September 8.20, October 7.75, November 7.11, December 6.45 percent, i.e. six consecutive monthly declines in the year-over-year rate.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US CPI inflation disinflates in the second half of 2022 as…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources