Full record
MisseconomyUS company bankruptcies surge in 2021 as the bankruptcies delayed during 2020 finally arrive.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“#Crazybuttrue fact. 2020: 529,068 company bankruptcies, lowest in 35 years. Also, a likely true fact. 2020: Most delayed bankruptcies in the history of the human race. So, 2021, you're up.”
US company bankruptcies surge in 2021 as the bankruptcies delayed during 2020 finally arrive.
- Made on
- 2021-01-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
Company bankruptcy filings in calendar 2021 rise materially above the calendar 2020 total, meaning an increase of at least 10% year over year, on the series Burry cites or the closest available national series such as US business bankruptcy filings reported by the Administrative Office of the US Courts, assessed as of 2021-12-31.
Criterion required calendar-2021 company bankruptcy filings to rise at least 10 percent above calendar 2020 on the Administrative Office of the US Courts business bankruptcy series or closest national equivalent, assessed as of 2021-12-31. Actual movement was in the opposite direction and far outside the threshold: business filings -33.7 percent, total filings -24.0 percent, business Chapter 11 -43.9 percent. Every candidate national series moves the same way, so there is no series-selection ambiguity and no conflicting credible evidence. US Courts Table F-2 counts are compiled on a 12-month-period-ending basis, which matches the calendar-year framing of the criterion exactly for the Dec 31 tables used here. Measurement window closed 2021-12-31; the Dec-2021 Table F-2 published in early 2022. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, Table F-2 (U.S. Bankruptcy Courts, Business and Nonbusiness Cases Commenced, by Chapter, During the 12-Month Period Ending December 31, 2021), US Total row: total filings all chapters 413,616; BUSINESS filings 14,347 (Chapter 7: 8,678; Chapter 11: 4,366; Chapter 13: 852; other chapters: 451); nonbusiness filings 399,269. Figures read directly from the official Table F-2 spreadsheet at https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/data_tables/bf_f2_1231.2021.xlsx
Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, Table F-2 for the 12-Month Period Ending December 31, 2020 (the comparator year), US Total row: total filings all chapters 544,463; BUSINESS filings 21,655 (Chapter 7: 11,919; Chapter 11: 7,786; Chapter 13: 1,150; other chapters: 800); nonbusiness filings 522,808. Figures read directly from the official Table F-2 spreadsheet at https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/bf_f2_1231.2020.xlsx
Derived comparison on the criterion's named series: US business bankruptcy filings fell from 21,655 (12 months ending 2020-12-31) to 14,347 (12 months ending 2021-12-31), a decline of 33.7 percent year over year. Total bankruptcy filings fell from 544,463 to 413,616, a decline of 24.0 percent. Business Chapter 11 filings specifically fell from 7,786 to 4,366, a decline of 43.9 percent, so no business sub-series rose.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US company bankruptcies surge in 2021 as the bankruptcies d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources