Full record
MisseconomyA wave of foreclosures and evictions hits the United States during 2021.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“2021 we will face the music on foreclosures and evictions, yet few investors aware of it. Thank you @TruthGundlach for sharing your wonderful charts and figures.”
A wave of foreclosures and evictions hits the United States during 2021.
- Made on
- 2020-12-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
Both US foreclosure filings and US eviction filings rise materially during calendar 2021 versus calendar 2020, measured on national filing counts (for example ATTOM foreclosure filings and Eviction Lab eviction filings), assessed as of 2021-12-31. A rise in one series alone does not satisfy the claim, which names both.
Criterion requires BOTH national foreclosure filings and national eviction filings to rise materially in calendar 2021 versus calendar 2020, and states explicitly that a rise in one series alone does not satisfy the claim. The foreclosure leg is decisive and unambiguous: ATTOM national foreclosure filings fell 29 percent year over year (151,153 in 2021). Nuance recorded for transparency, not a conflict: the eviction leg plausibly did rise off 2020's moratorium-suppressed base. Eviction Lab's tracked sites ran about 65 percent below the historical average over Mar 15 to Dec 31 2020 versus 50.3 percent OF the historical average (about 50 percent below) in full-year 2021, implying a partial year-over-year rebound. Eviction Lab does not publish a matched calendar-2020 tracked-site filing total alongside the 434,304 figure for 2021, so a clean 2021-vs-2020 eviction percentage on identical coverage is not available from the source. This does not change the resolution because the foreclosure series moved decisively the wrong way and the criterion names both. Eviction Lab's own framing is that no eviction wave materialized in 2021. Measurement window closed 2021-12-31; the decisive ATTOM data published 2022-01-13. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
2021 we will face the music on foreclosures and evictions
Twitter / @michaeljburry (Wayback Machine) ·
Maybe many are underestimating the end game on these #foreclosure and #eviction moratoriums (repetition)
Twitter / @michaeljburry (Wayback Machine) ·
With foreclosure moratorium, eviction moratorium both ending (repetition)
Twitter / @michaeljburry (Wayback Machine) ·
Deleted tweets for michaeljburry
GitHub Gist (travisbrown / cancel-culture) ·
Deleted tweets for michaeljburry
GitHub Gist (cancel-culture deleted-tweets report) ·
Evidence of what happened
ATTOM Year-End 2021 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report (published 2022-01-13): foreclosure filings (default notices, scheduled auctions, bank repossessions) were reported on 151,153 U.S. properties in 2021, DOWN 29 percent from 2020 and down 95 percent from the 2010 peak of nearly 2.9 million. The foreclosure leg of the criterion therefore fell, it did not rise.
Eviction Lab, US eviction filing patterns in 2021: 434,304 eviction cases were filed between January 1 and December 31, 2021 across tracked jurisdictions, versus roughly 865,000 in a typical year in the same areas, i.e. 50.3 percent of the historical average (about 430,000 fewer cases than normal). The authors state that given pandemic hardship they would have expected far more filings than in 2019 but 'the opposite happened,' and that filings did not revert to normal or above-normal levels even after the CDC moratorium ended in August 2021.
Eviction Lab, US eviction filing patterns in 2020 (comparator year): between March 15 and December 31, 2020 eviction filings were 65 percent below the historical average in tracked sites, and at least 1.55 million fewer eviction cases were filed nationwide in 2020 than in a typical year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A wave of foreclosures and evictions hits the United States…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources