Full record
MisseconomyUS homes are dumped on the market en masse once COVID-era mortgage forbearance ends.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“Forced forbearance the tainted sweet. Banks pulling back on new mortgages, even with GSE backstop. When forbearance ends, homes will be dumped en masse. People raiding retirement funds. "What the hell is going on around here?" - Mike Muir #EndTheShutdown”
US homes are dumped on the market en masse once COVID-era mortgage forbearance ends.
- Made on
- 2020-05-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
Given that CARES Act mortgage forbearance ended (condition met), a mass wave of distressed US housing supply follows by 2022-12-31: foreclosure filings and forced or distressed listings rise sharply above pre-pandemic (2019) levels and for-sale inventory swells with formerly forborne properties, rather than forborne loans being cured or refinanced into an orderly, tight market.
The record's antecedent condition is met (CARES Act forbearance did end), so the consequent is testable and fully determinate on the data. All three elements of the criterion point the same way: foreclosure filings in 2022 were 34 percent below 2019 rather than sharply above it; for-sale inventory hit record lows rather than swelling; and mortgage delinquency finished the window below its pre-pandemic rate. Recorded for the adjudicator so the strongest pro-claim framing is visible: foreclosure filings did more than double year over year (+115 percent vs 2021), which in isolation looks like a sharp rise. That comparison is against the artificially suppressed 2021 moratorium base, and the criterion specifies the pre-pandemic (2019) benchmark, against which 2022 was far lower. resolved_on set to the criterion deadline 2022-12-31; the confirming ATTOM year-end report was published 2023-01-12.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
ATTOM Year-End 2022 US Foreclosure Market Report: 324,237 US properties had foreclosure filings in 2022, up 115 percent from 2021 but DOWN 34 percent from 2019. Foreclosures affected 0.23 percent of all US housing units in 2022 versus 0.36 percent in 2019. ATTOM's Rick Sharga is quoted that foreclosure activity remains significantly lower than before the pandemic. Directly negates the criterion's requirement that foreclosure filings rise sharply above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Realtor.com active listing count for the United States (FRED ACTLISCOUUS): December 2019 = 1,033,913 active listings; December 2022 = 680,931, i.e. 34.1 percent BELOW the pre-pandemic level. The series hit an all-time low of 346,514 in February 2022, in the middle of the post-forbearance window. For-sale inventory did not swell with formerly forborne properties; it fell to record lows and never recovered to 2019 levels through 2022.
Delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages booked in domestic offices, all commercial banks (FRED DRSFRMACBS): 2.34 percent in 2019Q4, peaking at only 2.83 percent in 2020Q3, then falling to 1.79 percent by 2022Q4 and 1.70 percent by 2023Q4. Mortgage distress ended the window BELOW its pre-pandemic level, consistent with forborne loans being cured, modified or refinanced rather than liquidated.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US homes are dumped on the market en masse once COVID-era m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-05-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources