Full record
HiteconomyThe US government continues easy-money (accommodative monetary) policy into the next presidential term, i.e. it is still in place after the January 2013 inauguration.
A scored prediction by Michael Burry, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“Today, I expect the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term, past the meat of the foreclosure crisis and the corporate and public refinancing humps.”
The US government continues easy-money (accommodative monetary) policy into the next presidential term, i.e. it is still in place after the January 2013 inauguration.
- Made on
- 2011-04-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2013-01-20
Resolves true if US monetary policy is still accommodative on and after the January 20, 2013 inauguration that opened the next presidential term, operationalized as the federal funds target rate at or below 0.25 percent and the Federal Reserve still conducting net asset purchases (quantitative easing) on that date.
Unambiguous and non-contested. The criterion is a state test on a single date (2013-01-20), and both of its alternative limbs are independently satisfied by the operative FOMC decision: the fed funds target range was 0 to 0.25% (it had been there since December 2008 and was not raised until December 2015), and an active large-scale asset-purchase programme (QE3, $85bn/month) was running. resolved_on is set to the deadline date itself because the criterion evaluates the state of policy on that date; the December 2012 statement is the operative primary source and the January 30, 2013 statement is corroborating. No conflicting credible evidence found. Note for the later stage: the criterion is state-based and does not require any judgement about the *reasons* for easy money, so no interpretive residue.
Sources
Michael Burry transcript (Chancellor's Lecture, April 5, 2011)
Vanderbilt University ·
Transcript of Michael Burry's talk, 'Missteps to Mayhem: Inside the Doomsday Machine with the Outsider who Predicted and Profited from America's Financial Armageddon'
Vanderbilt University ·
Michael Burry: 'Inside the Doomsday Machine with the Outsider who Predicted and Profited from America's Financial Armageddon'
Vanderbilt University ·
Michael Burry on the financial crisis
Vanderbilt University (YouTube) ·
Michael Burry on Predicting the 2008 Financial Crisis | Missteps to Mayhem (2011 Lecture)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC statement of December 12, 2012 — the policy decision in force on the 2013-01-20 evaluation date. It set the federal funds target at "the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent" and continued large-scale asset purchases: "purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month" plus longer-term Treasury securities "initially at a pace of $45 billion per month" beginning January 2013. Both limbs of the criterion (target at or below 0.25% AND an active LSAP program) were satisfied on the deadline date.
FOMC statement of January 30, 2013 (ten days after the deadline) confirms policy continuity across the evaluation date: "the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent" and "purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month" — the $85bn/month QE3 run rate.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York programme archive for Large-Scale Asset Purchases documents that the QE3 open-ended purchase programme announced September 2012 was running continuously through January 2013, with the Treasury component of $45bn/month added starting January 2013; the first taper did not occur until December 2013.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US government continues easy-money (accommodative monet…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2011-04-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources