Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin is more attractive than gold over a 12-month view from May 2025 (gold temporarily overbought, Bitcoin to outperform gold).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think gold is temporarily overbought and that bitcoin is more attractive with a 12-month view.”
Bitcoin is more attractive than gold over a 12-month view from May 2025 (gold temporarily overbought, Bitcoin to outperform gold).
- Made on
- 2025-05-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-05-04
Over the 12 months from 2025-05-04 to 2026-05-04, Bitcoin's total price return exceeds gold's total price return (BTC outperforms gold spot over the window).
Deadline (2026-05-04) has passed; today is 2026-07-05, so the 12-month window is fully closed and resolvable. Bitcoin's total price return over 2025-05-04 to 2026-05-04 (~ -18%) was substantially BELOW gold's (~ +40-45%). The criterion asks whether BTC's return exceeded gold's; it clearly did NOT — gold outperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin. The exact gold start-point (~$3,200-$3,300/oz) is estimated from surrounding data (peak ~$3,500 on 2025-04-22, pullback into early May) and not a single primary print, but the direction and magnitude of the gap are unambiguous and robust to any reasonable start value in that range. Assignment of the outcome value and scoring are deferred to a later stage.
Sources
May 2025 Newsletter
Lyn Alden Investment Strategy ·
Outcome evidence
Start point (2025-05-04): Bitcoin ~$95,900 (BTC-USD $95,927.18 at 09:22 UTC on May 4, 2025; other prints ~$95,400-$96,400 same day).
End point (2026-05-04): Bitcoin ~$78,975 (Fortune reports BTC = $78,975.31 at 9 a.m. ET on May 4, 2026). Implied BTC 12-month return ~ -17.7% (from ~$95,900 to ~$79,000).
Gold over the same window rose sharply: gold hit an all-time high ~$5,589-$5,595/oz in late January 2026, then pulled back to roughly $4,600-$4,700/oz in early May 2026 (e.g. ~$4,724 on May 8, 2026; ~$4,703 on May 14, 2026). Against a ~$3,200-$3,300/oz level in early May 2025 (gold had peaked ~$3,500 on April 22, 2025 and pulled back into early May), gold's 12-month return is roughly +40% to +45%.
Corroborating narrative: multiple 2026 analyses confirm gold significantly outperformed Bitcoin over this window; Bitcoin, after crossing $126k in Oct 2025, retreated to the mid-to-high $70,000s and was nursing losses, while gold acted as the primary macro hedge and posted large gains.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin is more attractive than gold over a 12-month view f…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-05-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources