Prediction record
HiteconomyUS credit conditions will be somewhat easier in 2025 than the tightest point of this cycle (i.e. the cycle's tightest credit is behind us as of Oct 2024).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“we've seen the tightest credit situation for this cycle, and that 2025 will be a bit easier”
US credit conditions will be somewhat easier in 2025 than the tightest point of this cycle (i.e. the cycle's tightest credit is behind us as of Oct 2024).
- Made on
- 2024-10-31
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
US credit conditions in 2025 are, on balance, easier than the tightest point of the 2022-2024 cycle — operationalized as credit spreads and/or a bank lending-standards measure (e.g. Fed SLOOS) showing net easing versus the cycle's tightest reading, rather than reaching a new cycle-tight extreme during 2025.
Criterion allows credit spreads AND/OR a bank lending-standards measure. Credit spreads clearly satisfy it: 2025 HY OAS (year-end 2.81%, most of year <3%) was far easier than the 2022-2024 cycle's tightest, and the lone April-2025 spike to 4.61% did NOT reach a new cycle-tight extreme (2022 peak ~6%, Mar-2023 ~5.3% were wider). The lending-standards leg is more mixed (SLOOS showed some modest net tightening in 2025) but nowhere near a new cycle extreme, and far milder than the 2022-2023 peak. On balance the record resolves TRUE ('cycle's tightest credit is behind us' / 2025 easier than the tightest point). Caveat logged: the April-2025 tariff-shock spread spike and residual SLOOS tightening are the strongest disconfirming signals but neither set a new cycle-tight extreme. 2022 HY OAS peak sourced from established series history (FRED public CSV is limited to a trailing ~3-year window, so pre-2023 dailies could not be re-pulled directly; the ~5.9-6.0% 2022 peak and ~5.3% Mar-2023 peak are well-documented). No outcome value (o) assigned; scoring is downstream.
Sources
October 2024 Newsletter
Lyn Alden Investment Strategy ·
Outcome evidence
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2): 2025 spent most of the year very tight — minimum 2.59% (Jan 22, 2025), year-end 2.81% (Dec 31, 2025), well inside easy territory and near multi-decade tights. This is far tighter (easier credit) than the 2022-2024 cycle's tightest-credit (widest-spread) readings.
2025's widest HY OAS reading was 4.61% on 2025-04-07 (a brief tariff-shock spike). The 2022-2024 cycle's tightest-credit episodes were wider still — the 2022 rate-shock peak (~5.9-6.0% mid-2022) and the March-2023 regional-bank stress (~5.3%). So even 2025's worst moment did NOT reach a new cycle-tight (new spread-wide) extreme relative to 2022-2024; on balance credit spreads showed clear net easing versus the cycle's tightest reading.
Fed SLOOS 2025: banks reported only modest net tightening of C&I lending standards in parts of 2025 (e.g., Q3 2025 'modest net shares' tightening), with standards overall having eased since 2024 for most categories — a materially milder posture than the 2022-2023 cycle peak, when net-tightening shares reached roughly the +40% to +50% range.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Source includes 'that' after 'and'; restore for exact verbatim fidelity (tail truncation is an acceptable excerpt).
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US credit conditions will be somewhat easier in 2025 than t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-10-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources