Full record
Hiteconomy2023 will be a period of cyclical disinflation, with inflation coming off its highs.
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think basically like this, this current period is like a, a cyclical disinflation, right?”
2023 will be a period of cyclical disinflation, with inflation coming off its highs.
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Resolves TRUE if US headline CPI year-over-year inflation declined over the course of 2023 relative to its 2022 peak (i.e. disinflation, inflation coming off highs) by end of 2023; FALSE if inflation re-accelerated to new highs. Committed ('I think'), falsifiable, horizon = 2023.
Criterion resolves TRUE per data: headline CPI YoY fell over 2023 (roughly 6.4% in early 2023 down to 3.4% at year-end) versus the 9.1% June-2022 peak, with no re-acceleration to new highs. Primary source is BLS. Not scoring here per stage instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin Is Banking & Electrifying the Developing World w/ Lyn Alden
The Investor's Podcast (Bitcoin Fundamentals) ·
Evidence of what happened
US headline CPI year-over-year was 3.4% in December 2023, down sharply from 6.5% in December 2022 and far below the June 2022 peak of 9.1%. Inflation declined over the course of 2023 and did not re-accelerate to new highs — i.e. a period of cyclical disinflation with inflation coming off its highs, exactly as the criterion specifies.
BLS: consumer prices up 9.1% over the 12 months ended June 2022 — the 2022 peak that December 2023's 3.4% is measured against.
CNBC confirms December 2023 headline CPI annual rate at 3.4%, the final inflation reading of 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
2023 will be a period of cyclical disinflation, with inflat…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources