Prediction record
HiteconomyBy 2023, the Fed will have trouble continuing to tighten monetary policy regardless of inflation numbers.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“by next year, regardless of what inflation numbers are, they're going to have trouble to continue tightening”
By 2023, the Fed will have trouble continuing to tighten monetary policy regardless of inflation numbers.
- Made on
- 2022-07-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-07-26
During 2023, the Fed slows/halts its hiking cycle rather than continuing aggressive tightening (e.g. it pauses or stops raising the fed funds rate at some point in 2023 despite inflation still being above target). Resolves FALSE if the Fed raised rates freely through 2023 unconstrained.
Criterion: TRUE if during 2023 the Fed slows/halts hiking (pauses at some point in 2023 despite above-target inflation); FALSE if it raised freely through 2023 unconstrained. The Fed downshifted to 25bp increments and paused after the 2023-07-26 hike, holding steady through the rest of 2023 while inflation was still above 2%. Evidence supports a TRUE outcome. resolved_on = date of the final 2023 hike after which the pause held (2023-07-26). Interpretive note: the claim's causal framing ('trouble... regardless of inflation numbers') is soft; the falsifiable criterion (a pause/slowdown occurred in 2023) is clearly met. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Lyn Alden: Energy, Inflation, The Dollar & More
MacroVoices ·
Outcome evidence
Federal Reserve official record: in 2023 the FOMC hiked on 2023-02-01, 2023-03-22, 2023-05-03, and 2023-07-26 (to a 5.25-5.50% peak), then PAUSED — holding rates unchanged at the September, November, and December 2023 meetings with no further hikes for the rest of 2023 (and none in 2024 until cuts began Sept 2024). The hiking cycle slowed sharply (from 75bp moves in 2022 to 25bp moves in 2023) and halted mid-year.
Core PCE/inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target throughout H2 2023 (headline and core inflation still elevated when the Fed paused in the second half of 2023), so the halt occurred despite inflation still running above target — matching the criterion's 'despite inflation still being above target' condition.
Corrections
- horizon type: 'by next year' is a deadline-inference-table trigger → 'inferred'; deadline value 2023-12-31 unchanged.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
By 2023, the Fed will have trouble continuing to tighten mo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources