Prediction record
MissmarketsThe US dollar index will be weaker in 2022 (dollar declines over the year).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“My base case is towards a weaker dollar in 2022, but I'll be monitoring the technicals on that view”
The US dollar index will be weaker in 2022 (dollar declines over the year).
- Made on
- 2022-01-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
Resolves TRUE if the US Dollar Index (DXY) ended 2022 lower than it started (net decline over the calendar year 2022). FALSE if DXY rose over 2022. (DXY in fact rose sharply in 2022.)
Deadline 2022-12-31 has passed. Criterion: TRUE if DXY ended 2022 lower than it started; FALSE if it rose. DXY in fact rose over 2022 (from ~95.7 at the start to ~103.5 at year-end, peaking at 114.78 in September). The prediction of a weaker dollar in 2022 was contradicted by the data. Direction is clear and deterministic; scoring stage assigns the outcome value.
Sources
January 2022 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
US Dollar Index (DXY) ROSE over calendar year 2022, ending near 103.5 after peaking at a ~20-year high of 114.78 on 2022-09-27. DXY started 2022 around the mid-95 to 96 area, so it finished the year well ABOVE where it began — a net rise, contradicting the 'weaker dollar in 2022' prediction.
Corroboration: DXY hit a 20-year peak of 114.78 on 27 Sep 2022 and ended the year around 103.5, up on the year despite retreating from the September high. Multiple sources confirm DXY gained ~8% in 2022 (from ~95.7 to ~103.5).
Corrections
- Date: Actual publication date; does not change deadline or resolution.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US dollar index will be weaker in 2022 (dollar declines…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources