Prediction record
Hitmarkets2022 will be a less-spectacular year for equities than 2021, without a big crash.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“my base case is for a less-spectacular 2022”
2022 will be a less-spectacular year for equities than 2021, without a big crash.
- Made on
- 2021-12-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
Resolves TRUE if US equities (S&P 500 total return) delivered a materially weaker/less-spectacular 2022 than 2021's ~+28%, while not suffering a 'big crash' (interpreted as a peak-to-trough decline of ~35%+ or a full-year loss far beyond a normal bear market). Given the S&P fell ~19% in 2022, TRUE requires the year to count as 'less spectacular' (satisfied by the sharp underperformance vs 2021) without meeting the 'big crash' threshold. Evaluated on both sub-conditions.
Deadline 2022-12-31 has passed. Two-part criterion: (a) 2022 materially less spectacular than 2021's ~+28% — satisfied, since 2022 total return was about -18% to -19% (sharp underperformance); and (b) no 'big crash' (no ~35%+ peak-to-trough decline or catastrophic full-year loss) — satisfied, as the 2022 drawdown (~-25%) and full-year loss (~-19%) are a normal bear market, not a crash. Both sub-conditions point the same direction; scoring stage assigns the outcome value.
Sources
December 2021 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 total return was approximately -18.1% to -19.4% for full-year 2022 (Slickcharts/dqydj report ~-18.11%; one-year total-return series ~-19.4%), versus approximately +28.7% total return in 2021. 2022 was therefore materially weaker / far less spectacular than 2021.
2022 S&P 500 return detail: the full-year decline was a normal bear market (~-18% to -19% total return), not a 'big crash' — peak-to-trough drawdown in 2022 was roughly -25% (below the ~35%+ crash threshold in the criterion).
Corrections
- Date: December 2021 newsletter byline shows Dec 12, 2021; made_on was a first-of-month placeholder. Does not affect the 2022-12-31 horizon or resolution.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
2022 will be a less-spectacular year for equities than 2021…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources