Full record
HiteconomyHeadline inflation will stay elevated for at least another couple of quarters (into early 2022), driven by rent and owner's equivalent rent.
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“This is likely to keep headline inflation rather elevated for another couple quarters at least”
Headline inflation will stay elevated for at least another couple of quarters (into early 2022), driven by rent and owner's equivalent rent.
- Made on
- 2021-10-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-04-01
Resolves TRUE if US headline CPI inflation remained elevated (year-over-year rate well above the Fed's ~2% target, e.g. >4%) through at least 2022-04-01 (about two quarters past the utterance). FALSE if headline inflation fell back toward target within that window.
Deadline 2022-04-01 has passed. Criterion: headline CPI stays well above ~2% (e.g. >4%) through at least 2022-04-01. Actual: 8.5% YoY for the year ended March 2022 — clearly still elevated, not falling toward target. Evidence squarely supports the elevated-inflation direction; scoring stage assigns the outcome value. (The 'driven by rent and OER' framing is corroborated by the shelter-contribution evidence in the related record; the numeric threshold in this criterion is met regardless.)
Sources
October 2021 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS: US headline CPI rose 8.5% year-over-year for the year ended March 2022 (release covering data through March 2022, i.e. the 2022-04-01 checkpoint), the largest 12-month advance since December 1981 — far above the Fed's ~2% target and above the >4% threshold in the criterion. Prior months in the window were also elevated (7.9% YoY for year ended February 2022).
CNBC corroboration: consumer prices rose 8.5% in March 2022, the highest since 1981; food, energy and shelter costs drove the gain, confirming headline inflation remained well elevated (not falling back toward target) at least two quarters past the October 2021 utterance.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Headline inflation will stay elevated for at least another…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-10-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources