Full record
HiteconomyUS year-over-year CPI inflation will exceed roughly 3.2% in the April 2021 reading (due to low 2020 base effects).
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the April 2021 CPI will be 264.48...more than 3.2% above April 2020”
US year-over-year CPI inflation will exceed roughly 3.2% in the April 2021 reading (due to low 2020 base effects).
- Made on
- 2021-04-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-05-12
The April 2021 US CPI (released ~May 2021) shows year-over-year headline inflation greater than ~3.2% (vs April 2020). Condition: March 2021 CPI rose ~0.25%.
Criterion: April 2021 headline YoY CPI > ~3.2%. Actual = 4.2% YoY (BLS, released 2021-05-12). Clearly exceeds the threshold -> satisfied. Deadline 2021-05-31; resolved_on is the BLS release date 2021-05-12. The 'March 2021 CPI rose ~0.25%' precondition is contextual and does not affect the April YoY resolution.
Sources
April 2021 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS: the Consumer Price Index (all items, U.S. city average) rose 4.2% over the 12 months from April 2020 to April 2021 - the headline year-over-year figure from the April 2021 CPI report, released May 12, 2021. 4.2% > the ~3.2% threshold in the criterion, so the prediction is met.
Corroborating: April 2021 was the largest 12-month CPI increase since Sept 2008 at the time, driven partly by low April-2020 base effects (the mechanism the prediction cited). BLS CPI news release schedule confirms the April data was released ~mid-May 2021.
Corrections
- conditional is conditional: The 0.25% MoM figures are an illustrative floor demonstrating base effects guarantee a >3.2% YoY print, not a gating precondition; the canonical '>3.2% YoY' claim is unconditional.
- conditional condition: Remove the partial/illustrative condition consistent with is_conditional=false.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US year-over-year CPI inflation will exceed roughly 3.2% in…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-04-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources