Full record
HiteconomyUS M2 money supply will grow roughly 12-15% in 2021 (and will not be below 10%).
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“My base case would be somewhere close to the 15%, maybe 12 to 15%. I'd be shocked if it was below 10%.”
US M2 money supply will grow roughly 12-15% in 2021 (and will not be below 10%).
- Made on
- 2021-01-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-01-25
US M2 money supply growth over calendar year 2021 is roughly 12-15% (and at minimum >=10%), measured Dec 2020 to Dec 2021.
Criterion measured Dec 2020 -> Dec 2021 on M2SL. Result +12.47% is within the 12-15% range AND above the 10% minimum -> both parts of the written criterion satisfied. Deadline 2021-12-31; the definitive Dec 2021 M2 value was published in the H.6 release in late January 2022, hence resolved_on ~2022-01-25. Using the standard seasonally-adjusted monthly M2SL series.
Sources
Bitcoin & Macro Mastermind Discussion w/ Lyn Alden & Luke Gromen (BTC008)
The Investor's Podcast ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED M2SL (seasonally adjusted, monthly, billions): Dec 2020 = 19,115.7; Dec 2021 = 21,498.7. Calendar-year growth (Dec-to-Dec) = 21,498.7/19,115.7 - 1 = +12.47%. This falls squarely inside the predicted 'roughly 12-15%' band and clears the >=10% floor. (Data pulled from FRED's official fredgraph CSV for series M2SL.)
Corroborating context: M2 YoY growth peaked near 26.8% in Feb 2021 and decelerated through the year; the full-year Dec-2020-to-Dec-2021 change of ~12.5% is consistent with the H.6 Money Stock Measures release. Note: the current M2SL series reflects the Feb 2021 H.6 redefinition (which added retail money market funds etc.); the ~12.5% Dec/Dec figure is on this standard published measure.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US M2 money supply will grow roughly 12-15% in 2021 (and wi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources