Prediction record
HiteconomyOver the next 3-5 years (from late 2020), the US dollar and many other currencies will continue to devalue versus hard assets.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“Going forward over the next 3-5 years, I still expect many currencies including the dollar to continue to devalue vs hard assets.”
Over the next 3-5 years (from late 2020), the US dollar and many other currencies will continue to devalue versus hard assets.
- Made on
- 2020-12-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-02
Over 2020-12-02 through 2025-12-02, the US dollar and many other currencies decline in value versus a basket of hard assets (gold, broad commodities) — i.e. hard assets appreciate against those currencies on net over the window.
Criterion: over 2020-12-02 to 2025-12-02 the USD (and many other currencies) declines versus a basket of hard assets (gold, broad commodities) on net. Gold appreciated dramatically against the USD (roughly $1,810 -> $4,000+/oz, well over 2x). Broad commodities also rose substantially over the 5-year window (elevated energy/metals/agriculture vs late-2020 levels). The dollar clearly lost purchasing power versus hard assets on net across the window. Deadline 2025-12-02 has passed (current date 2026-07-05), so the window is complete. Gold data is the strongest single leg; a broad-commodity index (e.g., Bloomberg Commodity Index) endpoint could be added at score time for the 'many currencies / broad commodities' framing, but the net direction is not in dispute. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
Gold rose from ~$1,800-1,815/oz in early December 2020 to record highs above $4,000/oz in late 2025 (LBMA set 53 new all-time highs in 2025; average Q4 2025 price ~$4,135/oz, +55% y/y; full-year 2025 average ~$3,431/oz, +44% y/y) — gold more than doubled versus USD over the window.
Independent confirmation gold rose from the ~$1,950 (2020) area to over US$4,300 at its 2025 peak, driven by central-bank demand, de-dollarization and safe-haven flows.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Over the next 3-5 years (from late 2020), the US dollar and…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources