Full record
MissmarketsThe equal-weight S&P 500 will outperform the market-cap-weight S&P 500 in the years ahead if a new business cycle begins.
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“if a new business cycle begins, we should likely see the equal weight version outperform in the years ahead”
The equal-weight S&P 500 will outperform the market-cap-weight S&P 500 in the years ahead if a new business cycle begins.
- Made on
- 2020-06-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-06-29
Scored only on Y ('equal-weight outperforms cap-weight over ~36 months') if the condition X ('a new business cycle begins' after June 2020) objectively occurred; if X held, resolves TRUE when the equal-weight S&P 500 (e.g. RSP total return) exceeds the cap-weight S&P 500 total return from 2020-06-29 to ~2023-06-29. If a new business cycle did not begin, status void.
Condition X (a new business cycle began after June 2020) objectively held per NBER (May 2020 expansion start), so the record is SCORED on Y rather than void. Outcome Y ('equal-weight outperforms cap-weight over ~36 months, 2020-06-29 to 2023-06-29') did NOT hold: cap-weight SPY outperformed equal-weight RSP over that window, driven by megacap/AI concentration peaking in 2023 H1. Note: I could not pin the exact-date cumulative RSP-vs-SPY total-return figures for the precise 2020-06-29 to 2023-06-29 endpoints from a single primary source; every credible source agrees on direction (SPY ahead), and the compounded annual returns confirm it, but the exact spread is approximate. Directionally unambiguous; a quantify-stage exact endpoint pull (RSP vs SPY total-return, 2020-06-29 to 2023-06-29) would firm up the margin.
Sources
June 2020 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: the COVID recession trough was April 2020, so a new expansion (new business cycle) began May 2020 — the conditional X ('a new business cycle begins' after June 2020) objectively held as of the June 2020 statement date.
Annual total returns (dividends reinvested) show cap-weight SPY ahead of equal-weight RSP across the window: 2020 SPY +18.33% vs RSP +12.66%; 2021 SPY +28.73% vs RSP +29.41%; 2022 SPY -18.18% vs RSP -11.62%; 2023 (H1, AI/megacap rally) SPY far ahead. Compounded over ~2020-06 to 2023-06, SPY outperformed RSP.
Corroboration that megacap concentration (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.), especially the 2023 rally, pulled cap-weight SPY sharply ahead of equal-weight RSP over this period; equal weight lagged into and through 2023.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Record's own resolution establishes (NBER) a new expansion began May 2020, so condition X objectively occurred; condition_met should be true, not null.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The equal-weight S&P 500 will outperform the market-cap-wei…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-06-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources