Prediction record
HiteconomyUS fiscal deficits will reach at least $3 trillion in calendar year 2020 (about 15% of GDP).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“We're looking at U.S. fiscal deficits that are likely to reach at least $3 trillion this year, or about 15% of U.S. GDP.”
US fiscal deficits will reach at least $3 trillion in calendar year 2020 (about 15% of GDP).
- Made on
- 2020-03-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-10-16
Resolves TRUE if the US federal budget deficit for 2020 (FY2020 and/or calendar-year 2020, per official Treasury/CBO figures) reaches at least $3 trillion. The '15% of GDP' is descriptive; the $3T threshold is the binding test.
The $3T threshold (the binding test) was met: official FY2020 deficit was ~$3.1T, ~15% of GDP, matching both the numeric and descriptive parts of the claim. Criterion permits FY2020 and/or calendar-year 2020; FY2020 (ended 2020-09-30) is the standard official figure and clears the bar. Resolved_on reflects the release of preliminary FY2020 results (mid-Oct 2020); final Treasury statement issued shortly after. Calendar-2020 deficit was also well above $3T, so both interpretations resolve TRUE.
Sources
March 2020 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
US Treasury/CBO: the FY2020 federal budget deficit totaled $3.1 trillion, exceeding the $3T threshold. Mnuchin/Vought joint statement on final FY2020 budget results confirmed the figure officially.
CBO Monthly Budget Review for FY2020 reports the fiscal-year deficit at ~$3.1 trillion (about 15.2% of GDP), driven by the pandemic and relief legislation.
Washington Post reporting on the Treasury/CBO figures: US budget deficit breached $3.1 trillion in 2020.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US fiscal deficits will reach at least $3 trillion in calen…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources